Notre Dame opponent scout: USC reporter Erik McKinney breaks down the Trojans
Through a 6-0 start with an admittedly weak first-half schedule, no one has quite been able to decipher who this USC team is entering its Week 7 matchup with Notre Dame. Those who know best are the ones who cover the Trojans on a day-to-day basis.
BlueandGold.com spoke to WeAreSC lead team reporter and managing editor Erik McKinney for an inside look at the Trojans.
BlueandGold.com: What has USC quarterback Caleb Williams done for an encore to his Heisman Trophy campaign?
Erik McKinney, WeAreSC: A little bit of everything. It’s been interesting — he was so good early in the year. He’s coming off a game, though, where Arizona really frustrated him, it seemed like. It was the first game this year where USC’s offense wasn’t clicking from the first snap, so that part of it is gonna be interesting, the bounce-back and if Notre Dame uses what Arizona did and had success with early.
But the way you hear people talk about him is what it is. It seems silly, sometimes, when people don’t see him a lot and they hear the praise, and it’s like, “He can’t possibly be that.” But he really is that. His ability to scramble in the pocket, the arm strength. Almost at times, against this schedule — which has been admittedly not great; they haven’t played a bunch of really good teams — it’s not that he looks bored, it’s that he looks so comfortable and in control a lot of times that it comes across as being a little bit bored.
The other thing that came up against Arizona is he ran quite a bit for the first time, and that seemed to unlock some of the defense. So again, it will be interesting, is that a sign of things to come? He said after the game he doesn’t really like to run, but that could be something that helps. … He was so good last year that there isn’t really like a, “Oh, he’s clearly grown,” in all of this. It’s just more Caleb Williams, and he’s been, I think, the best player in college football this year.
B&G: What did Arizona do that frustrated Williams and the USC offense?
EM: The buzzword during the game from the ESPN announcers was this “Dollar” package they ran. It was kind of four down linemen and seven defensive backs or three down linemen, a linebacker and seven defensive backs, but that was it. And Arizona played Washington the previous week, so they got [Washington quarterback Michael] Penix [Jr.] and Williams back-to-back, and clearly that was the focus for them. Penix threw for a bunch of yards against them, but no touchdowns and no real explosive plays. I think they had one big pass play where they got a tight end on a linebacker.
But Arizona was fine telling both offenses, “You gotta get four-yard chunks and go all the way down.” And USC’s offense does not do well when it’s forced to do that, because they want to hit big plays. They want to find a bunch of space. And when Arizona’s got 15 defensive backs on the field, it’s really hard for them to do that. The yards after catch were way down. Caleb had 4 pass completions at halftime. They went three-and-out on the first three drives of the game. Either mentally, physically or just kind of with the game plan, they were not ready to start against Arizona.
It was Arizona just throwing out as many defensive backs as possible, trying to jam up every passing lane and Arizona just using a limited number of guys to try to cause as much havoc against the run, knowing that USC has not consistently been a team that is okay taking the ball out of Caleb Williams’ hands and just trying to run and run and run.
B&G: But when they have run, they’ve run it super efficiently, right?
EM: It’s crazy. We were a big chunk of the way through the Arizona game, and we’re like, “They’re not running the ball very well,” but [USC running back] MarShawn Lloyd is averaging 6 yards a carry. The USC offense is at its best when it’s hitting big plays, and that’s in the run and pass. I know that sounds dumb, because obviously, every offense is better when it does that, but this one is really predicated on that. They feel almost uncomfortable when they’re forced to really grind it out.
When USC wants to run, it’s tough to shut them down for long. I think the offensive line this year has been, not a disappointment, but not as good as you certainly thought it could have been based on who came back and who came in.
B&G: What do you make of the USC defense so far?
EM: It’s hit-or-miss, and mostly miss. It’s still set up to create havoc plays, so when they’re getting after the quarterback, when they’re keeping the quarterback contained, it’s really good. When they get out of rush lanes and the offense gets literally any room to operate, it’s a big play. They haven’t been great at tackling, especially the last few weeks. Two out of the last three games, they’ve had a big back that has just run through them. Not for massive gains or anything, but they haven’t tackled them well. Obviously, with [Notre Dame running back Audric] Estimé, that’s a huge concern for this one.
The corners have been… okay? In position fairly regularly, but not making a ton of plays on the ball. The biggest thing for the defense this year is honestly, I think they’re playing better than they were last year, and the defensive front is certainly better than they were last year. They are not getting the turnovers — either luck or just forced takeaways, whatever it is — that they got last year. Which is crazy, the turnover margin that they had last year.
Everyone said, “It’s unsustainable.” It was pretty sustainable last year, but year-to-year, it’s not happening again. They’ve gotten a few, but nowhere near the dominant, plus-3 a game or whatever they were through parts of last year. So that’s kept them on the field for longer, they’ve had to defend more games this year. Again, the depth is better than last season. It’s still not good enough for anybody to feel great about them going against a good, solid, competent offense that they’re gonna see a bunch of the rest of the year.
B&G: Do you expect true freshman wide receiver/kickoff and punt returner Zachariah Branch to play Saturday, and what kind of difference does he make if he’s in?
EM: I honestly don’t know. [USC head coach] Lincoln [Riley] is so closed-off about availability, injury, any of that stuff. If he plays, he’s a huge difference-maker. It’s kind of like the way it feels a little bit fake to talk about Caleb being that good. With Zachariah, he’s still just a true freshman and he’s only played in four games, but he changes what you can do on offense. USC still has a good group of wide receivers, even without him. But the ability to move him around, have him do different things on offense, the space that he creates, both for himself and the other receivers, is not replaceable.
I think special teams has taken a pretty significant step back [in the past two games without Branch]. It’s USC, there are athletes, they have a kick returner, they have a punt returner without him, but he changes how you have to prep for that. So if he’s out, it’s not as if USC is bringing a terrible offense, but if he’s in, it really is another step up from what they can do.”
B&G: Score prediction?
EM: Oh, gosh. It’s interesting, because the weather still seems like an unknown. Like maybe it rains earlier in the day and it’s okay for the game? I think that probably changes it a little bit. But I could see 45-35 USC in this one. I think that they have been looking forward to this game for a while, and it feels like they haven’t been quite as locked-in lately, knowing what’s coming at this point in the season. So I could see USC up for this one, and coming out and actually playing pretty well.
This year’s USC team has been impossible to peg down. What you expect from them, a lot of times, just does not show up. I thought they’d be up for that Arizona game, coming back from two really close road games, and they just sleepwalked through the first quarter. But knowing what’s on the line and knowing what Caleb Williams wants to get done, I think they’re buttoned-up and ready to go for this one.
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