‘They Can Win a National Title’: College Basketball Media Talk Expectations for Kentucky
Kentucky may have come up short versus No. 1-ranked Kansas in the Champion’s Classic on Tuesday, but they certainly raised some eyebrows, putting up a strong fight. It was a game that came down to the final few possessions.
Expectations for this year’s Kentucky team have ranged all across the board heading into the season, but now with a few games under their belt, where do things stand?
KSR+ talked to three college basketball experts to get their thoughts on Kentucky’s team following the Champion’s Classic.
Jeff Goodman – The Messenger and The Field of 68
Jeff Goodman is known for his hot takes regarding Kentucky basketball and was very vocal about his concerns about this team over the offseason.
While he still has his concerns, Goodman will admit: this team is fun.
“It’s an entertaining product to watch. Three of their better players had crappy games and they’re still right there,” he said. “And they’re young. You have [Tre] Mitchell and [Antonio] Reeves that are older, but I think it just shows the gap. There’s not a huge gap anymore from the top team, the number one team. Whether it’s Purdue, Arizona, Kansas. They’re very good teams, but there are no super teams out there.”
As for Tuesday’s game, Goodman was impressed with the confidence Kentucky showed in only its third game of the season.
“These guys weren’t scared at all, not that I thought they would be on the biggest stage so far.” Goodman said. “Everybody is talking about the Champion’s Classic, United Center. You’ve got all these NBA guys there. They weren’t scared. They didn’t play scared.”
Despite his questions and concerns about Kentucky, he believes they have a very high ceiling and an NCAA Tournament floor.
“Ceiling would be a final four team, if they get hot, they play together,” Goodman said. “The floor is that you finish fifth in the SEC and you get knocked out in the first round of the tournament.”
One player that caught Goodman’s eye on Tuesday was Rob Dillingham, who finished with 18 points, including 16 in the first half, before fouling out late in the game.
“When he plays like that, man, he’s fun to watch,” Goodman said. “I don’t know if I’ve seen too many guys with the speed and quickness that Dillingham has in 25 years. He’s super electric. They’re fast.”
Even with Antonio Reeves going 3-for-17 from three and poor performances from Justin Edwards and DJ Wagner, Kentucky was still alive in the closing moments with a chance to win.
“How were they even in the game? It’s because they were all over the glass,” Goodman said. “They impressed me just because, again, if you told me those three guys were going to have D games, you’d be like there’s no way in hell they’re gonna be in it and have a chance to win it.”
Goodman said that Justin Edwards has to “figure out where he’s going to get his shots.”
“The hard part for Edwards is that you’re playing with freshman point guards,” Goodman said. “If he was playing with Dajuan Harris, it would be a different deal. Justin Edwards, honestly, might be the leading scorer on this team, in my opinion. Maybe not with Reeves, but he’d be up there consistently.”
While Goodman may be high on Edwards, he’s not as high on DJ Wagner, who didn’t play very well on Tuesday.
“He’s a huge volume, low efficiency guy. And he’s got to change that. He’s got to learn what a good shot is and be more efficient,” Goodman said. “Dillingham has got some of that in him too, but man, he was efficient and I thought he played under control yesterday.”
Then there’s Reed Sheppard, who added 13 points in 16 minutes off the bench on Tuesday.
“[Reed] fits with this group very well because he has a high IQ and he’s very versatile,” Goodman said. “He’s not a guy that needs to dribble, dribble, and necessarily score to be effective. He can do whatever the team needs him to do. I think he’s a really good piece. You have to have him on the floor. ’
Now, the question is what this team looks like when the three seven-footers – Zvonimir Ivišić, Aaron Bradshaw, and Ugonna Onyenso – return to the court?
“When do they? Can [Aaron] Bradshaw make up for lost time? It’s hard to do,” Goodman said. “I saw Z walking through the hallway. I’m looking at him and Bradshaw at the end of the game last night and you’ve got to adapt as an international player. Plus you’re a freshman, plus you’re thin, and you’ve missed time. That’s hard. I don’t know if this is the best way to play for this team.”
Jon Rothstein – CBS Sports
For CBS Sports college basketball reporter Jon Rothstein, Tuesday’s game wasn’t a big deviation from what he expected from Kentucky.
“I felt after watching a lot of these guys in high school and watching Kentucky over the summer when they went to Canada for GloblJam, that Kentucky would be a throwback to the type of teams we’ve seen really thrive under John Calipari,” Rothstein said. “It’s the best crop of guards that John Calipari has had since the 19-20 season when Kentucky went 25-6 and the NCAA Tournament was canceled due to COVID.”
Rothstein said this Kentucky freshman class is reminiscent of some of the better recruiting classes from John Calipari.
“It kind of reminds me of the class that we saw in ‘13 that started out slow, but wound up in the 2014 National Championship game,” Rothstein said. “That class with the Harrison twins, James Young, Julius Randle, and Dakari Johnson.
Rothstein talked about Kentucky’s ability to move the ball as a key advantage for this team.
“The greatest strength of the team is, for all intents and purposes, is the ability they have to make the ball zip and flow,” he said. “They balanced things out well with Tre Mitchell as a face-up five, but I also think they have a team that’s going to be in situations where you’re playing predominantly freshmen. Those players are going to get better as the season comes along.”
When the games start to matter more in February and March, Rothstein expects the freshmen to thrive.
“They’re going to be closer to their sophomore year when the games are going to matter most,” he said. “If you give this crop and nucleus another 30 games or so, they’re going to be a really, really tough team to beat.”
Rothstein believes that if a few more shots fell their way, Kentucky could’ve pulled off the upset on Tuesday.
“Wagner and Edwards shot a combined 1-of-18 from the field,” he said. “If they just shoot 6-of-18 from the field, Kentucky wins the game against the No. 1 team in the country. There’s a lot to like right now about John Calipari’s team.”
Unlike Goodman, Rothstein wasn’t willing to share his thoughts on the ceiling to floor for Kentucky in 2023-24.
“Somebody told me a long time ago, never speculate on speculation,” he said. “But I think you could say safely that Kentucky is a team that’s going to be a really tough out in the 2024 NCAA Tournament and a team that, right now, has the requisites to play into the second weekend.”
Kevin Sweeney – Sports Illustrated
Kevin Sweeney of Sports Illustrated entered this season higher on Kentucky than most other national writers. He had the Cats ranked No. 10 overall in his preseason list, ranking every Division 1 program from No. 1 to No. 362.
“I thought the film from, particularly the New Mexico State game, which I had watched, had been relatively impressive,” Sweeney said. “Here’s a team that has several guards that can hurt you. Here’s a team that can space you out, attack you off the bounce, and drive you. They validated all of that and more yesterday. Obviously, the result wasn’t what they wanted.”
Kentucky may have lost on Tuesday, but it took a lot for Kansas to come away with the victory.
“There were a lot of opportunities to win that game if you’re Kentucky. While it’s probably disappointing not to get the win, I think it validated the reasons you should be optimistic with this team,” Sweeney said. “This isn’t a moral victory program. If there’s an example of a moral victory for a program like Kentucky, I think last night would probably be a decent example of it.”
And while Rothstein might not have been comfortable sharing a ceiling for this team, Sweeney said the sky’s the limit.
“I really think they can win a national title,” Sweeney said. “I thought that was validated last night. It’s not going to be easy. They have a lot of growth that still needs to happen, but at the end of the day, when you have elite level guards, you have a chance to win any game in college basketball. Kentucky has elite level guards.”
Yet, even at its lowest, Sweeney believes Kentucky is a Top-20 team that still has bright moments.
“Kentucky will lose games that they shouldn’t this year. 100 percent,” he said. “It’s the nature of playing as many young guys as they are. I think there’s a world where they’ll end up as the four or five seed that nobody wants to play.”
As for the freshmen, Sweeney likes how each player “brings something a little bit different.”
“[Reed] Sheppard comes in, he’s steady, he makes threes, he defends his tail off, he doesn’t necessarily need the ball in his hands every possession. He doesn’t need to shoot it every time he touches it,” he said. “[Rob] Dillingham is this incredible spark, energizer bunny, flying around. Yes, he’s going to make mistakes. Yes, at times it’s going to be a little bit shaky. But also, at the end of the day, the moments that are great, like the moments we saw last night, they’re really spectacular.”
Sweeney also isn’t too worried about DJ Wagner and Justin Edwards.
“I think DJ will be fine. DJ looked a little bit sped up by the moment yesterday. Getting guarded by Dajuan Harris is not easy. He’s one of the best defenders at the point of attack in college basketball. That made his life difficult,” he said. “Justin [Edwards] is still coming along, but I think you still see the appeal.”
If Kentucky has one thing, they’ve got playmakers, Sweeney said.
“You look around college basketball and you feel the lack of dudes who can go get one,” he said. “For Kentucky to have four guys, maybe five guys even that you can give the ball to and just say, hey, shit isn’t working, just go make a play. That’s really, really valuable. It’s something a lot of teams wish they had.”
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