ANALYSIS: Comparing Miami’s way-too-early odds from this year vs. last spring show upward trend

Last spring a couple of ultra-early betting lines saw Miami with a wins over-under of 7.5 per DraftKings, with DraftKings also picking the Canes as an early 6.5-point home underdog to Texas A&M with Clemson a 10-point favorite.

The FSU game? The Seminoles were listed as a 16.5-point favorite.

At the same time quarterback Tyler Van Dyke was tied for eighth-best Heisman odds among quarterbacks at +2200 per DraftKings, with FanDuel at +4000, BetMGM at +6000, PointsBet +3000 and VegasInsider +5000.

National title odds? Those were set at +20000 by Fanduel.

Of all the above, the only one close to reality was the over-under on wins at 7.5, with the Canes ending 7-5 prior to the bowl loss. The Canes bucked the odds to beat both the Aggies and Tigers, and played close with FSU to win all three of those single game bets.

We won’t even get into the Van Dyke odds, which now seem ridiculous.

Which brings us to this year. While the betting odds weren’t really spot on a year ago for the most part, what is interesting to glean is the national perception odds-wise now vs. then … and where new QB Cam Ward fits into the Heisman conversation.

So let’s start with Ward. FanDuel lists him at +2000, barely above Van Dyke’s +2200 a year ago. He’s tied for ninth on the list, with Quinn Ewers and Carson Beck atop the list at +750. With that said, Ward is No. 1 on the list when it comes to ACC QBs. DraftKings also has Ewers and Beck tied, albeit at +900, and has Ward tied at No. 9 with Tennessee’s Nico Iamaleava. But where FanDuel lists FSU QB DJ Uiagalelei two spots behind Ward at +2500, DraftKings has the Seminoles QB a spot ahead at +2000.

As for the big picture Miami odds?

VegasInsider has its odds out for teams winning the college football national title with Georgia atop the list at +400. Miami is tied for 19th with Kansas State at +6600. The ACC teams listed ahead of the Canes? That would be FSU at +1800 (ninth-best odds) and Clemson at +2500 (12th-best odds). Louisville is four spots behind Miami (+10000).

The top Canes’ opponents are the aforementioned FSU and Louisville (back to back games Oct. 19 and Oct. 26) along with the Florida Gators (+12500, 25th best) in the opener.

BetMGM has Miami tied for 16th best odds with Oklahoma, USC and Missouri at +3500, with Clemson and FSU both tied for ninth-best at +2000.

FanDuel lists Miami at No. 18 at +6500, with FSU ninth and Clemson tied for 14th. That’s pretty good compared to FanDuel’s +20000 odds for Miami to win the title as of last spring, right?

DraftKings has the Canes tied at No. 19 with Washington at+7000, with FSU and Clemson checking in at No. 9 and 10, respectively.

The over-under for win totals is not out yet.

So what does it all mean?

Well, if the odds are to believed, then the odds-on favorites to be in the ACC title game are FSU and Clemson (Miami doesn’t face the Tigers this year), with the Canes just on the outside looking in.

So when the win-loss totals come out it would not be a surprise if Miami is right around the 9- or 10-win mark, with the only opponents near them odds-wise for the national championship FSU, Florida and Louisville.

As far as the expectations for Ward? Interestingly the Canes reportedly took Ward as their top choice over Will Howard, but it’s Howard (who wound up at Ohio State) with better Heisman odds at fourth-highest per FanDuel and fifth-best per DraftKings. A lot of that has to do with the team he’s on, of course.

Our bet?

That Ward has a better season than Howard.

And that Miami hits that 10-win mark for the second time in two decades.

Wishful thinking?

Maybe.

But hey, in the end odds are just people taking wishes and dashing them with a dose of mathematic reality.

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