ANALYSIS: Look at what Harbaugh inherited at champion Michigan vs. what Cristobal was handed helps reveal potential UM title timeline
It might sound like the question before a funny punch line. “What did the Miami Hurricanes pre-Mario Cristobal and the national champion Michigan Wolverines pre-Jim Harbaugh have in common?” But it’s no joke. Because the answer can help reveal a timeline of sorts for Cristobal to right this listing Miami ship and turn it into a champion.
The first stop on the journey to answering the question posed above requires a quick hop in our time machine and a jump back to 2015. That’s when Jim Harbaugh took over a Michigan program that had gone 8-5, 7-6 and 5-7 in its prior three seasons under Brady Hoke (2012-2104) … and from 2008-10 the program went a combined 15-21. It seemed like the cupboard was bare, but was it really? (More on that later).
As it pertains to those down seasons in Ann Arbor, Miami fans can relate with the Canes only having one 10-win season (10-3 in 2017) since 2003 and with lackluster records of 7-6, 6-7, 8-3 and 7-5 prior to Cristobal taking over (and now 5-7 and 7-6 in his first two years with a depleted roster).
Hustle back to Harbaugh, and where the comparison ends is that he was able to immediately take his team to new heights. His first two years Michigan finished 10-3 in each and ranked as high as No. 12 in 2015 and No. 2 in 2016. Every year since he’s spent at least one week ranked in the nation’s top 15, and his only real “down” years were 8-5 in 2017 and 2-4 in the COVID-shortened 2020 season.
So, you might say, case closed: Cristobal and Harbaugh both took over programs that struggled for multiple seasons, but Harbaugh was able to quickly turn it around while Cristobal could not.
Well, not so fast.
Because a deeper dive shows Cristobal faced headwinds that Harbaugh did not.
OPINION: Lessons the Miami Hurricanes can glean from Michigan’s national title run
Now let’s get back in that time machine and look at the Michigan situation when Harbaugh took over in 2015.
The Michigan recruiting classes that built the bulk of his inherited talent ranked as follows:
2011 No. 30
2012 No. 13
2013 No. 6
2014 No. 18
The average over those four key years building the experienced portion of Harbaugh’s team ranked No. 16.8.
Harbaugh also had some experienced and really productive starters in his first season at Michigan.
Leading the offense was QB Jake Rudock (3,017 passing yards, 20 TDs, 9 INTs, 166 rush yards and four more scores on the ground), RB De’Veon Smith with 753 rush yards and six TDs (adding 159 receiving yards and a TD) and receiving targets Jehu Chesson (764 yards, nine TDs), Amara Darboh (727 yards, 5 TDs), and TE Jake Butt (654 yards, 3 TDs).
On defense the team leaders were Joe Bolden (83 tackles, 6.5 TFL), Desmond Morgan (71 tackles, 2 TFL, sack), Jarrod Wilson (2 INTs), Jourdan Lewis (2 INTs, 20 PBU), Chris Wormley (14.5 TFL, 6.5 sacks), Willie Henry (10 TFL, 6.5 sacks) and Taco Charlton (8.5 TFL, 5.5 sacks).
On offense Rudock was a fifth-year senior, Smith a junior, WRs Chesson and Darboh were seniors and Butt a junior. The five OL that started in the bowl game (Mason Cole, Ben Braden, Graham Glasgow, Kyle Kalis and Erik Magnuson)? Four were seniors, with the lone sophomore Cole. So that’s seven of Harbaugh’s first-year 10 major contributors on offense were seniors.
On defense, of the aforementioned top producers, Bolden, Wilson, Henry and Worley were seniors, with Morgan a fifth-year senior and Charlton and Lewis juniors. So of the seven most productive players on defense all were upperclassmen with five seniors.
So yeah, there was some major veteran presence on that team … which wasn’t the case at Miami (more on that later).
Also note that every one of the Michigan players we mentioned were inherited by Harbaugh with the exception of Rudock, who was an Iowa transfer.
Now keep in mind that in Harbaugh’s first season at Michigan the team played a pretty easy schedule including Oregon State (finished 2-10), UNLV (3-9), Maryland (3-9), Rutgers (4-8), Indiana (6-7) and Minnesota (6-7). Even Penn State had a down year in 2015 at 7-6. And yes, all seven of those games were Michigan wins.
Now put the year 2022 into the dial window of the time machine and look at Cristobal as measured by those same metrics. The classes that built the bulk of his team upon arrival ranked as follows:
2018 No. 12
2019 No. 26
2020 No. 17
2021 No. 10
So the average over those four key years building the experienced portion of Harbaugh’s team ranked No. 16.3.
Very similar to Michigan’s 16.8, right?
On paper, yes. In reality, no. Because Miami’s players didn’t pan out, weren’t developed, transferred out, etc. You can see the difference in what Harbaugh did with a senior-laden team in Year 1 for him at Michigan vs. what Cristobal had to put on the field in his first year.
So let’s get to that now.
The starters for Cristobal off the roster he inherited?
On offense QB Tyler Van Dyke, Jake Garcia and Jacurri Brown combined to throw for 18 TDs with 12 INTs in 2022, and Brown added 223 rush yards (with no scores). Van Dyke’s injury saw him only play in nine games. The top backs were Henry Parrish (616 yards, 4 TDs) and Jaylan Knighton (423 yards, 1 TD). TE Will Mallory led the way as a pass catcher with 538 yards and three TDs, followed by Colbie Young with 367 yards and five scores and Brashard Smith with 307 yards and no TDs.
On defense the top starters were Kam Kinchens (59 tackles, 6 INTs), James Williams (58 tackles, INT), Corey Flagg (56 tackles, 10.5 TFL, 2.5 sacks), Akheem Mesidor (10.5 TFL, 7 TFL), Jahfari Harvey (7.5 TFL, 5.5 sacks), Darrell Jackson (4.5 TFL, 3 sack), Leonard Taylor (10.5 TFL, 3 sacks), DJ Ivey (38 tackles, 2 INTs), Te’Cory Couch (37 tackles, 6 PBU) and Tyrique Stevenson (25 tackles, 2 INTs).
An obvious issue here was at quarterback compared to Michigan – you have to get more from that position. As for how it breaks down class-wise? On offense Van Dyke was a sophomore with Brown a true freshman and Garcia a redshirt freshman. Parrish was a transfer arrival and a junior, with Knighton a sophomore. Mallory was the lone player that classified as a senior among the offensive playmakers, with Young a junior (and JUCO arrival) and Smith a sophomore.
And the starting OL from the final game of the season had one seniors, two juniors, a sophomore and a freshman (senior DJ Scaife, junior Jakai Clark, sophomore Laurance Seymore, freshman Anez Cooper, junior John Campbell).
On defense Williams, Kinchens, Taylor and Flagg were sophomores, Mesidor was a transfer arrival and a junior, Harvey was a sophomore, Jackson a sophomore as a transfer arrival, and Stevenson (a transfer) and Couch were juniors with Ivey a senior.
So of all the above players inherited by Cristobal, three were seniors (Mallory, Scaife, Ivey). You can also see the attempt to get transfers to contribute, with four transfers and a new JUCO arrival five of the above producers.
Meanwhile Harbaugh had a senior-laden team when he arrived and only took one transfer that was a heavy contributor (Rudock).
The obvious conclusion here is that Harbaugh inherited a lot of upperclassman talent that helped make it a much smoother transition than what Cristobal faced.
So the bottom line message off that is maybe cut Cristobal some slack in that regard.
And while Harbaugh’s record may have been better right off the bat compared to Cristobal, that doesn’t mean he didn’t also struggle. He was 0-6 against Ohio State his first six years and lost six straight bowl games from 2016-22 (although the last two were of course in the Fiesta Bowl and Orange Bowl).
It took Harbaugh until his seventh season to get more than 10 wins, and now it’s been 12-2, 13-1 and 15-0 seasons the last three years.
It takes time to build a champion, right?
Heck, it took Harbaugh’s nine years at Michigan, and that was with a glass half-full compared to what Cristobal was handed, as laid out above.
So is it fair to think Cristobal can with a national title with a shorter time frame than Harbaugh given all of that?
It’s food for thought, and maybe a healthy dose of patience on your plate will be needed. Change doesn’t happen in big steps, usually it’s a process. And Cristobal started at a lower point than Harbaugh roster-wise.
As it pertains to recruiting class rankings? Cristobal’s first two full classes compare quite favorably to what Harbaugh put together. Miami ranked in the nation’s top 10 for both of Cristobal’s at No. 8 in 2023 and No. 6 in 2024, while Harbaugh’s first two full cycle classes were ranked No. 7 (Class of 2016 – he was hired in December of 2014) and No. 4 (Class of 2017).
So that’s a good starting point.
When you combine all the above with yesterday’s analysis when we broke down the lessons that the Hurricanes can glean from Michigan’s title team (the need for top talent, depth and older starters who have been getting starting experience for three-plus years), the difference between these two programs is obvious … as is what it’s going to take to get it right. Michigan utilized an offense than ran the ball at more than a 2:1 ratio compared to passing, with the nation’s top defense. It’s a grind-you-to-death, ball-control offense and a playmaking defense. That’s Mario Cristobal’s dream, right?
So maybe if we set the time machine for a few years into the future we can see if Cristobal’s dream is achieved or if it becomes a nightmare.
Unfortunately we’ll have to wait day by day for that time to pass. There should be steps forward and may be more steps back here and there.
But every minute moving into the future can’t go to waste as Cristobal tries to follow a blueprint that probably isn’t too dissimilar from Harbaugh’s. Right now these two coaches and programs don’t have a lot in common. But someday they might. As Howard Schnellenberger liked to say, “The only variable is time.”
The post ANALYSIS: Look at what Harbaugh inherited at champion Michigan vs. what Cristobal was handed helps reveal potential UM title timeline appeared first on On3.
