Beating Vegas Bowl Edition Part 2
The bowls are stupid.
All you need to know about handicapping minor bowls in the era of the portal and opt outs was embodied by Old Dominion-Western Kentucky last week. Old Dominion went up 28-0 in the first 17 minutes of the game on a WKU team crippled by opt outs, but the Hilltoppers inserted their 3rd string QB (who was in the process of converting to TE) playing behind an OL down three starters and naturally, he ripped off 383 yards passing in 3 quarters as ODU’s coaching staff panicked and choked, surprised to learn that you can’t run out 35 minutes of clock with a lead.
The Monarchs lost 38-35.
It was played before a crowd of 5,632 fans. No, I’m not missing a zero.
Naturally, I had ODU and stopped paying attention to the game once I saw the 4 touchdown lead.
More madness, starting tonight.
USF +3.5 vs Syracuse. Syracuse is down their starting QB (above average player) and backup (he sucked) and may just Wildcat significant portions of the game with their converted TE. Staff disarray is a major concern as well. USF went 6-6 against a fraudulent schedule, but QB Byrum Brown is a high beta dual threat who may account for 4 touchdowns and 2 turnovers. Or 1 touchdown and 4 turnovers. Either way, it’s gonna be exciting! Syracuse is the better overall roster, but their key losses and the weirdness of their staff limbo make them vulnerable.
When confronted with that kind of chaos, I’ll take the points with the hook. While exhaling slowly and chuckling that I’m betting on a game this stupid.
UCF -4.5 vs Georgia Tech. Both teams have explosive offenses led by lunatic dual threat QBs (Haynes King vs. John Rhys Plumlee – sign me up for the Pick 6s, 40 yard scrambles and 80 yard bombs) and should be able to find easy yardage against their opposite, particularly since both Ds – already poor – were even further crippled by the portal and injury. Both teams are wildly inconsistent, unreliable and both struggle to stop explosive plays. I played the OVER early at 63.5, but that number is now north of 67, so some value has eroded.
Really fun game. I think UCF is better, but the line adequately reflects that disparity. I don’t see the clear value. I’d love board input.
Arkansas State -3 vs. Northern Illinois. True sicko mode here. Disgusting. I have no recommended play.
Troy -7.0 vs Duke. Duke’s staff has scattered to the winds and the roster has been devastated by the portal and injury. They’ll start a 3rd string freshman QB and their defense has been pillaged. Troy’s head coach is departing to Tulane but the team is otherwise fairly intact. I took Troy -7, but I’m lukewarm on the bet.
Air Force +2.5 vs James Madison. I got Air Force early at +3.5 and I hit the Moneyline as well. Service academies always play hard in bowl games (AF head coach Troy Calhoun is 8-2 ATS in bowl games) and their starting QB Larrier is trending healthy. James Madison had a terrific season but lost head coach Curt Cignetti to Indiana and could be down as many as 10 starters between injuries and the portal. Note: the portal opt outs all claim that they are playing. We’ll see come game time. Skeptical analyst is skeptical.
Georgia State +1 vs Utah State. I actually bet Utah State +1 before the line shifted and I think they’re probably the sharper side still. Georgia St will be out their star RB and three other key starters who were snapped up by P5 programs. They’re still more athletic than Utah State overall, but some of those losses were key guys. Utah State is down to their #3 QB, but he’s a former starter at Wyoming. Playing in Boise in cool weather can’t be discounted either. I’ll back the Aggies with marginal confidence.
South Alabama -17 vs Eastern Michigan. Eastern Michigan is the worst bowl team in America playing a superior USA squad down several starters. The fat line reflects the disparity and I want no part of this game for either side. Motivation will decide this cover and I don’t know who wants to be there.
Do you?
Utah -6 vs Northwestern. I think both teams are fraudulent and Utah has been hit hard by injuries, opt outs and the portal. They’re the superior program, but Northwestern is intact and potentially more motivated. I’d probably be forced to play Northwestern if it goes to 7. Gross.
Coastal Carolina +10 vs. San Jose State. SJSU is the better team, but surrendering double digits is nothing to sneeze at. I’m angry I didn’t get on this earlier for the Spartans, but the line has inflated too much for a confident play.
That takes us through Christmas. We’ll hit Part 3 soon. Can’t wait to talk Bowling Green-Minnesota playing in the garden spot of Detroit!
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