Breaking down Kentucky’s Path to the Final Four in Phoenix

Kentucky is back in the NCAA Tournament looking to win championship No. 9. In order to do that, they’ll have to make it to the Final Four in Phoenix.

Last year, KSR+ looked at the potential path that Kentucky would have to take to get to the Final Four. While the Cats couldn’t make it to the Sweet 16 last season, UK is hoping for a better run in 2024.

KSR+ is now taking a look at the potential paths for Kentucky to make the Final 4. It all starts Thursday night at 7:10 p.m. ET in Pittsburgh as No. 3-seed Kentucky faces No. 14-seed Oakland.

Round 1: No. 3 Kentucky (23-9) vs. No. 14 Oakland (23-11)

Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Date: March 21
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET

The first round will see Kentucky face Oakland in Pittsburgh as the Cats look to avoid the dreaded 14-over-3 upset. KSR+ has already looked at the analytics of Oakland, but let’s look at what else Kentucky can expect in Round One.

For starters, Oakland is a zone-heavy team, while on offense they shoot at a high volume and are led by Trey Townsend. Townsend, a 6-foot-6 junior forward, leads Oakland in points, rebounds, assists, and steals. While Townsend may be the team’s strong point in the paint, this isn’t a team that can be overlooked from three. Playing alongside Townsend are Blake Lampman and Jack Gohlke, who are both threats from beyond the arc.

Oakland should be a good matchup for a high-paced Kentucky team. KenPom currently has Oakland ranked No. 137 overall in the nation, while EvanMiya has them at No. 152.

Round 2: Matchup with No. 6 Texas Tech (23-10) or No. 11 NC State (22-14)

Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Date: March 23
Time: TBD

The winner of Kentucky vs. Oakland will play the winner of No. 6 seed Texas Tech (23-10 overall) and No. 11 seed NC State (22-14 overall) in the round of 32 on Saturday.

Starting with Texas Tech, this is a team that’s been battling injury of late. Red Raiders small forward Darrion Williams is averaging 11.4 points and 7.5 rebounds per game, but suffered an ankle injury in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament versus BYU and missed the team’s semifinal loss to Houston. Texas Tech’s starting center Warren Washington averages 9.9 points and 7.4 rebounds per game, but has missed the last five games and played very little over the last month with a foot injury.

That puts Texas Tech guards Pop Isaacs and Joe Toussaint in a key role with a lot of responsibility. Isaacs is averaging 15.9 points, while Toussaint averages 12.1 points per game. They’ve played in all 33 games for Texas Tech this season.

Meanwhile, it’s not often you see a team that finished 10th in their conference make it to the Big Dance, but that’s the beauty of March. NC State entered the ACC Tournament at 17-14 all but guaranteed to miss March Madness without an ACC Tournament Championship. Five days and five wins later, NC State is a No. 11 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

A lot of credit for their run can be given to a pair of DJs. Guard DJ Horne finished with 29 points in the ACC Title game win over North Carolina, while DJ Burns finished with 20 points. Burns, a 6-foot-9, 275-pound big out of Rock Hill, SC, has become a college hoops favorite and could give Kentucky problems if they are to advance.

Jayden Taylor and Casey Morsell are the other two NC State players to average in double-figures. Taylor averages 12.2 points per game, shooting 36.5 percent from three, while Morsell averages 11.6 points per game.

Sweet 16: Five Potential Opponents

Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas (TX)
Potential Opponents: Florida, Boise State, Colorado, Marquette, and Western Kentucky

There are five potential matchups for Kentucky in the Sweet 16, including a SEC showdown. Florida and Kentucky have split the two matchups this season. Could a rubber match be in the works?

Since Florida’s 94-91 win over Kentucky at Rupp Arena on Jan. 31, Florida has gone 9-5, including making a run to the SEC championship game. However, during that game, Florida’s sophomore center Micah Handlogten was stretchered off the floor after fracturing his left leg. Florida will face the winner of Boise State and Colorado. Those two teams will play in the First Four on Wednesday.

Marquette is a strong contender to make the Sweet 16 after going 25-9 this season and defeating teams like Kansas, Texas, and Creighton. However, they are battling injuries as well. Marquette’s star guard Tyler Kolek has missed the last six games with an oblique injury.

Then there’s the potential for an in-state battle with No. 15-seed Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers enter the tournament with a record of 22-11, finishing third in the regular season Conference USA standings, but taking home its Conference USA tournament ever with wins over New Mexico State, Middle Tennessee State, and UTEP.

A matchup with Western Kentucky could be a reunion for one player. Former Kentucky guard Dontaie Allen averages 8.3 points and 3.0 rebounds for the Hilltoppers, playing 20.9 minutes per game.

Elite 8: Eight Potential Opponents

Potential Opponents: Houston, Longwood, Nebraska, Texas A&M, Wisconsin, James Madison, Duke, and Vermont

Looking at the potential Elite 8 opponents, No. 1-seed Houston immediately stands out. The Cougars went 30-4 this season and are the No. 2 overall team in the tournament. However, they showed they could be vulnerable with a 28-point loss in the Big 12 finals.

Texas A&M could be a team Kentucky wants to avoid after losing to them in both the regular season and the SEC Tournament. However, the Aggies will have their work cut out for them if they advance past Round One, likely facing Houston barring an upset from No. 16-seed Longwood.

Nebraska (23-10) is set to face Texas A&M in the first round after going 23-10 this season. The Cornhuskers are led by guard Keisei Tominaga.

A Duke matchup could be an interesting one as the Blue Devils have been up and down this season but finished second in the ACC with a 24-8 record. Vermont enters the tournament at 28-6 after winning the America East regular season and conference tournaments.

James Madison is a popular upset pick versus Wisconsin after going 31-3 and winning the Sun Belt Conference Tournament. Wisconsin, however, could do some damage, already having wins this season over Marquette and Purdue.

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