Brief thoughts as Auburn basketball heads into the postseason
AUBURN — Auburn will head into the postseason on a three-game winning streak and playing arguably its most balanced basketball of the season.
Auburn closed out the regular season at 24-7 overall and 13-5 in Southeastern Conference play. It marked the fifth time in the last seven seasons the Tigers have won at least 24 games and the win total is tied for sixth-most in program history. It was also the fifth time Auburn has won at least 13 SEC games in program history including the third time in the last seven seasons.
— In my estimation, this is the most balanced and dangerous Auburn team Bruce Pearl has taken into the postseason. Matchups will matter, but Pearl has never had a team rank inside the Top-15 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency at the end of the regular season. The Final Four team was really balanced, playing good defense and shooting the three at a high clip. The Jabari Smith-Walker Kessler team played exceptional defense, but was reliant on two first-rounders to carry the load offensively. This team is different.
It’s the best top-to-bottom frontline Pearl has deployed while at Auburn and there are weapons around the perimeter that can make you pay from three. They share the basketball better than any other team Pearl has had, and they just scored at least 90 points in an SEC game for the seventh time this season, which is school record, surpassing the old mark of six 90-point SEC performances in 1971, 1975 and 1976. Time will tell and winning March games is hard, but I don’t think Pearl has taken a team into the postseason better equipped to win multiple games in the tournament.
Below is a comparison of the five best Auburn teams under Pearl and their T-Rank analytics. In five of the 10 main categories, this year’s team is the best under Pearl.
20182019202020222024Adj Off. Rank395373013Adj. Def. Rank493963108Eff. FG % Offense50.854.45049.954.0Eff. FG % Defense49.751.747.144.144.03P % Offense35.738.130.631.835.13P % Defense35.134.832.531.030.62P % Offense48.751.753.351.354.82P % Defense47.751.446.242.843.1Assist Rate53.252.449.152.962.5Block % Defense15.215.412.920.915.7
Chad Baker-Mazara (Photo by Matt Rudolph/Auburn Live)
— In conference play games only, Auburn finished with four main players shooting over 40 percent from three. Chad Baker-Mazara shot 47 percent (24-51), Denver Jones shot 46 percent (29-63), Johni Broome shot 42 percent (17-41) and Jaylin Williams shot 41 percent (19-46). Only Bryce Brown and Samir Doughty accomplished a 40-percent mark in SEC games during the 2019 season, only Anfernee McLemore, Chuma Okeke and Brown accomplished that mark in SEC games only during the 2018 season, and only Smith and Zep Jasper accomplished that mark in SEC games only during the 2022 season.
— Per TeamRankings.com, Auburn has the best chance of winning the SEC Tournament among all 14 teams participating. TeamRankings gives the Tigers a 29.28 percent chance to win the tournament in Nashville. Auburn has an 85.14 percent chance of winning on Friday and a 46.78 percent chance of winning on Saturday. Tennessee has the next best odds to win the tournament at 27.98 percent, followed by Alabama at 22.30 percent and Kentucky at 12.05 percent.
The 2024 SEC tournament bracket odds above use win odds calculations derived from TeamRankings’ sophisticated power ratings. They analyze the likelihood and expected outcome of every possible path to the SEC tournament championship for every team in the 2024 SEC bracket.
— Auburn’s 29 assists against Georgia are the most in Bruce Pearl’s 10 seasons at Auburn, topping the Tigers’ 27 assists against CSUN in 2019. Ten different players recorded an assist against the Bulldogs led by five from Johni Broome and Chaney Johnson, which is his season high.
— If you only took into account the assists by Auburn’s big men, Broome (5), Johnson (5), Jaylin Williams (4) and Dylan Cardwell (4), the team assist total would have still been higher than 12 other games this season.
— Auburn shot 51.6 percent (33-of-64) from the floor and 47.8 percent 11-of-23 from 3-point range in its win over Georgia. It marked the 10th time the Tigers have shot at least 50 percent from the floor this season including the seventh time in SEC play and the third-straight game overall, during which the Tigers are shooting 51.4 percent. Auburn shot 56.6 percent in two wins over Georgia this season. It was the 10th time the Tigers have made double-digit 3-pointers this season, including the sixth time in league play (both games against the Bulldogs).
— The Tigers outscored Georgia 20-2 on fast-break points. The Tigers are 7-0 this season when they score at least 20 fast-break points.
— Auburn blocked six shots against Georgia, which gives the Tigers 186 blocks on the season, four blocks behind the 2018-19 Tigers for second-most in program history.
— Tre Donaldson turned in his first career 100+ assist season with two assists and one turnover versus UGA.
Johni Broome (Photo by Matt Rudolph/Auburn Live)
— Broome recorded his 22nd-straight game in double figures with 14 points to go with six rebounds, five assists, two blocks and one steal against UGA. With his two blocked shots, Broome breaks a tie with Mamadou N’diaye to move into sole possession of 10th place on Auburn’s single-season blocks list.
— Cardwell scored in double figures for the second-straight game with 10 points on 3-of-4 shooting from the floor. He also added four assists, three rebounds, one block and one steal in the win. It was the second time in Cardwell’s career he has posted consecutive double figure scoring games after doing so at Vanderbilt and against Ole Miss earlier this season.
— The second half of the Georgia win wasn’t ideal from a defensive perspective. Auburn allowed 47 points, 14-22 from the FT line, and gave up 21 rebounds. For the game, Georgia out-rebounded and scored more points in the paint than Auburn. Pearl said Georgia was more physical. Credit Georgia for bringing the fight in the second half, but if the Tigers want to make a run in March, they can’t have games or even halves of basketball where they get pushed around. They did at times on Saturday.
— The Tigers have won 24 games this season, all by double digits. That’s the most in college basketball. By comparison, Houston has 18 wins by double digits, UConn has 21, Purdue has 15, Arizona has 18 and Gonzaga has 20 such wins.
— Auburn has won 13 games by 20 points or more. That’s the most among all SEC teams.
— Auburn’s computer ratings entering the postseason look like this:
— No. 6 in ESPN’s Basketball Power Index
— Auburn finished the season as the fifth-best team in away and neutral site games combined, behind only UConn, Houston, Purdue and Duke, per T-Rank analytics. The Tigers possessed the No. 7 most efficient offense and the No. 18 most efficient defense on such scenarios.
— All 24 of Auburn’s wins have been by at least 11 points. The 24 double-digit wins are second-most in program history, only trailing the 1998-99 Tigers’ 26 victories by at least 10 points. However, the 24 double-digit wins are tied for the most in the regular season. The ’98-99 team also won 24 games by double digits during the regular season.
— Auburn is one of four college basketball teams with an unbeaten record in Quad II, III and IV games. Houston, UConn and Purdue are the others. Houston, UConn and Purdue are of course, the three consensus top three teams in college basketball.
— The Tigers are fifth nationally in scoring margin at +15 points per game. Only UConn, Arizona, Houston and Gonzaga have better scoring margins this season.
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