CaneSport Roundtable: Will Miami average scoring 39 or more points per game for the first time since 2002?

The last time the Miami Hurricanes averaged 39 or more points was 22 years ago, and last year there were seven national teams that pushed past that number – LSU, Oregon, USC, Oklahoma, Georgia, Memphis and Notre Dame. All of those other than USC (8-5) won 10 or more games.

In 2022 there were eight teams that hit the number: Tennessee, Ohio State, USC, Alabama, Georgia, Michigan, Washington and UCLA … again, with all but one team (UCLA 9-4) winning 10 or more games.

High-powered offenses certainly are a way to get to the promised land of 10+ wins for Miami, and with star QB transfer Cam Ward and RB transfer Damien Martinez joining top returning WRs Xavier Restrepo and Jacolby George, there’s plenty of proven talent for Miami on the offensive side.

But it’s no easy task getting to that 39-point mark. Let’s look at Miami’s last 10 years as a sample size:

2023: 31.5 points per game, No. 38 in nation

2022: 23.6 points per game, No. 96 in nation

2021: 34.1 points per game, No. 23 in nation

2020: 34.0 points per game, No. 26 in nation

2019: 25.7 points per game, No. 90 in nation

2018: 28.8 points per game, No. 65 in nation

2017: 29.1 points per game, No. 59 in nation

2016: 34.3 points per game, No. 37 in nation

2015: 27.8 points per game, No. 71 in nation

2014: 29.2 points per game, No. 59 in nation

So no Miami offense ranked higher than No. 23 in the nation in the last 10 years, a far cry from that last great offensive season for UM in 2002 when the Canes averaged 40.5 points per game, fourth-most in the nation. Add up the average over those last 10 years and the team ranked 56th in the nation on offense for the last decade. Go back further and you’ll find Miami hasn’t had a top 20 scoring offense nationally since 2002.

Not real good.

By the way, Cam Ward led Washington State to the nation’s No. 4 passing offense last year, and it was No. 35 overall in total yards. So now let’s get right to it. The CaneSport staff weighs in with their thoughts on if this year’s offense can be the first at Miami to average 39 or more points since 2002:

CANESPORT ROUNDTABLE SERIES: Is the season-opener at Florida a must-win game for Mario and Miami? …. Will the Miami Hurricanes defense finish 2024 ranked higher nationally than it did in 2023? … Who starts in the secondary, and is it an area that can get the job done? … Will Cam Ward break Miami’s passing records? … Who will be the No. 2 QB behind Cam Ward, and will that be an indication of the starting QB in 2025? … Does Damien Martinez surpass 1,000 yards and get past 1,500 to push Willis McGahee and Duke Johnson for school record? … Three true freshmen that will make the biggest impact for the 2024 Miami Hurricanes

GARY FERMAN

I was talking to former national champ coach Ed Orgeron one day at spring practice and he told me something that has stuck with me. He said having bigtime receivers to go with an elite quarterback is the key to winning big in college football because they can get you a lot of quick and easy touchdowns that allow you to score in the 40’s, an artificial barometer to being able to contend for championships. So as I tackle this question of whether Miami can average more than 39 points, I keep coming back to a single question. Where is that big-time No. 1 receiver? I’m a huge fan of Xavier Restrepo as a top shelf college receiver and like Jacolby George’s skillset even though he is bit inconsistent at times. But neither is close to the type of No. 1 receiver who is a threat to go the distance every time he touches the ball. And because of that, I am not sure how many quick scores the Miami offense will get this season. With weapons all over the place, offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson undoubtedly will field an attack that scores a lot of points. He’s going to spread the ball around, utilize the tight ends and running backs in the passing game again. It’s going to be great and very exciting. But I’m not sure that it’s going to result in a scoring average above 39 points a game because of the absence of that No. 1 dude at wide receiver who can get cheap touchdowns.

MATT SHODELL

I have not been as high on an offense as this one dating back to the early 2000s. Have there been some times when it seemed the Canes would get back to their high-flying ways? Sure, for instance when 5-star Kyle Wright came on board, or even more recently after Tyler Van Dyke was the ACC Offensive Rookie Of The Year. But those QBs, like so many in between and before them, just didn’t really pan out. Something just feels different this time, though. You have a 1,000-yard returning receiver in Xavier Restrepo and a guy who came close to 1,000 yards in Jacolby George. QB Cam Ward spearheaded the nation’s No. 4 passing offense last year and in his four college seasons has only found success. RB Damien Martinez starred his first two years at Oregon State and is looking to show out this year and be an NFL first round draft pick. The offensive line has back three starters plus Indiana multi-year starting center Zach Carpenter. Tight end should be a lot more productive (how can it not be?) with Elijah Arroyo back in action and true freshman Elija Lofton looking like he’s going to be a weapon at H-back. The only issue here is depth. I don’t see a lot behind any of the aforementioned guys that excites me, other than perhaps at receiver. So the team will have to stay pretty healthy. If it does, then I do see 39+ average points this season, especially with a pretty easy schedule that doesn’t have a lot of top returning defenses (Florida ranked No. 69 nationally in total defense last year, Florida A&M was second and Ball State 17th but at a much different level, South Florida was 115th, Virginia Tech was 20th, Cal was 102nd, Louisville 21st, FSU 28th, Duke 41st, Georgia Tech 120th, Wake Forest 74th and Syracuse 65th. So of the major opponents (excluding FAMU and Ball State), only Virginia Tech snuck into the top 20 and there were six teams that ranked No. 65 or worse a year ago in total defense. Miami should light up a lot of these opponents.

IZUBEE CHARLES

Last season just eight offenses in the entire country averaged more than 39 points per game, and this upcoming fall I think the Hurricanes will be among that group when it’s all said and done. Although the Hurricanes dealt with inconsistent quarterback play and injuries at the position throughout the year, they still managed to finish the year averaging 31.5 points per game, which was the 38th best in the country. With two of Miami’s top receivers, Xavier Restrepo and Jacolby George, back along with the additions of Cam Ward, Damien Martinez and Sam Brown, plus a strong offensive line, the question should be `why can’t the Hurricanes have one of the most dynamic offenses in college football?’ After a strong spring, confidence is high in Coral Gables, and in year two under Shannon Dawson I think Miami will finish as a top-10 offense this year. “We have one of, if not the most dangerous, offenses in college football,” Restrepo said. “I’m really confident this year, to say the least. I’m just excited for the 2024 Hurricanes and we should run it up on everybody.” I agree with that sentiment.

STEPHEN WAGNER

Cristobal’s best roster with his best quarterback as a head coach (his 2019 Oregon team with Justin Herbert) won 12 games, a conference title and a Rose Bowl while handling most opponents by at least two possessions and even scoring 77 points against an FBS opponent early in the season. And that team only averaged 35 points per game. That’s not to say Cristobal or Dawson aren’t capable of creating and managing an explosive offense, but it’s incredibly difficult to play at the pace to score almost 40 points per game and play defense at a consistently high enough level to dominate opponents. Cristobal wants to play complementary football with a balanced passing and rushing attack, flip the field on special teams and not require defenses to be on the field for 100+ snaps per game, and as long as his teams win, he’s typically fine with whatever the final score is given his team plays well. The teams that each scored at least 39 points per game last season all adopted aggressive offensive mentalities that valued explosiveness above all else, which means Miami would likely have to ramp up its pace of offensive play this fall to get enough possessions to consistently reach the mark. So, in short, I don’t see the Hurricanes reaching the mark.

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