Five quick thoughts: Texas takes it down in Ames

Matt Campbell prepared a lot to throw at Texas in this game. The Iowa State Cyclones were still alive in the Big 12 Championship race and have typically used Texas as a big stage to demonstrate their “5-star culture” and fundamentally tough, solid game.

Within this game the Cyclones had a few nasty quarterback POP passes where they’d ask Rocco Becht to feign run quarterback power before pulling up to throw down the field. The first instance yielded a first down on 3rd-and-1, the second yielded a 66-yard touchdown on 4th-and-1. On standard downs they threw endless motions and shifts at the Longhorns to try and create leverage and build drives.

But it wasn’t enough, the Longhorns played an outstanding game on the road and overcame it all in a 26-16 win that will keep them atop the Big 12 standings with one final game remaining between them and their first title game berth since 2018.

Quick thought no. 1: Sweat and Murphy answered the call

Iowa State’s left guard Jarrod Hufford made the curious choice before the game to call out the Longhorns and suggest the Cyclones’ gritty, underdog routine at home was going to have some surprises for Texas. It was a bold move for a player who’d be lining up against Texas’ defensive tackle tandem of T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy, two of the best players on the whole team who’d already swallowed up the best run game in the Big 12 (Kansas State) earlier in the season.

Sweat had a huge game, despite a modest box score, breaking up a pass and blocking an extra point which Austin Jordan returned for two points. At the moment this was a big play as it turned a potential 13-10 contest into a 15-9 Texas edge which gave them a two field goal lead in a game where trading field goals late appeared to be a likely outcome.

Murphy had 1.5 sacks on the game and also gave Iowa State fits throughout the game despite not necessarily stuffing the stat sheet.

The strongest testimony of their dominance?

Iowa State ran the ball 21 times for nine total rushing yards for 0.4 ypc. Campbell’s gambit throughout the game was to play heavily in 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends) which invited the Longhorns to match in their 3-4 personnel with three defensive tackles on the field (and Jahdae Barron at cornerback). You can’t invite the Longhorns to play with three defensive tackles this season, you’re drawing dead asking a Big 12 offensive line to block all of Sweat, Murphy, and an Alfred Collins or Vernon Broughton on every snap.

The Texas defense dominated the game outside of the explosive touchdown play on 4th-and-1 where the Cyclones fooled the Horns with the POP pass.

Quick thought no. 2: Cedric Baxter filled in the gap

Texas was up against it going into this game (and the rest of the season) without star running back Jonathon Brooks, who’d already eclipsed 1,000 rushing yards with two regular season games left on the schedule. But freshman CJ Baxter stepped up to the plate with a huge performance running through a Cyclone defense overstressed by tempo, spread formations, and the dangers of the Texas skill talent.

On the day Baxter had 20 carries for 117 yards at 5.9 ypc and was also the leading receiver (in catches) with five receptions for 13 yards. Jaydon Blue also showed up big as the primary change of pace back, running for just 18 yards but picking up a 4th-and-1 to ice the game late and catching four passes for 31 yards.

Texas leaned primarily on the passing game in this contest, spreading out the Cyclones early and often with empty formations and trips sets. Quinn Ewers went 23-33 for 281 yards at 8.5 ypa with two touchdowns and zero interceptions but Iowa State was well prepared for the spread stress.

They forced Ewers to hold the ball for four sacks, all in the first half before Texas adjusted, and generally survived against the Longhorn passing game. However, they couldn’t do so and still play to their standard up front against hard yet patient running by Baxter. The game ended with Texas bullying the gritty Cyclones and, ending the game by holding onto the rock and kneeling it out.

Quick thought no. 3: Texas dominated on special teams

There are often opportunities to steal margin in games against the Matt Campbell Cyclones, who routinely have lousy kick coverage teams and Texas did exactly that.

Xavier Worthy returned a punt 24 yards to set up Texas first scoring drive and should have had a touchdown on another if not for an unnecessary block in the back.

“Sideshow” Bert Auburn became the main show at times with converted kicks from 39, 42, and 50 yards out. Iowa State missed a 50-yarder to go 1-2 on their own attempts and also had the aforementioned extra point attempt blocked and returned for a 3-point swing.

Ryan Sanborn had four punts on the day, two of which pinned the Cyclones inside the 20 and had a long kick of 54 yards. It was a total team win for the Longhorns, they put together a clean performance particularly in the second half where they had just one penalty.

On one occasion where Iowa State did successfully pin Texas on the nine, the Longhorns put together their big 91-yard touchdown drive which allowed them to put together a commanding win.

Quick thought no. 4: Red zone beaters

Texas has had issues all season scoring inside the red zone and had a potential dilemma in this game going against the quintessential “bend don’t break” defense of the Big 12. Iowa State is built to force teams to sustain drives and finish in the red zone against disciplined and physical defense.

Steve Sarkisian had a few ideas in mind to avoid the issue, including this play-call to finish the 91-yard touchdown drive.

This score came from 22 yards out on a play where I half-expected the Longhorns to challenge the spot on the previous play (a RPO to Adonai Mitchell). Sark had another idea, he used tempo to hurry up to the line of scrimmage and run an apparent dive for the marker with Jordan Whittington blocking on the perimeter, as he so often does so well. Then Whittington blew by the safety and Ewers hit him in stride for a touchdown.

The timing of the call with the tempo and the design, using the best blocking receiver on a sucker play, was perfectly calibrated to catch Iowa State.

Later in the game…

Gunnar Helm ran a shallow cross underneath vertical routes before releasing down the sideline unmarked by any defenders and Ewers hits him for a score. It’s hard for defenses to account for all of Texas’ NFL-level skill talents and still make sure they have someone matching Helm on what initially appears to be an unthreatening throw underneath.

Texas’ goal line offensive woes didn’t play into this game because they executed the shots they planned in advance.

Quick thought no. 5: Short week before Tech

Texas has some injury questions heading into the final game of the regular season against Texas Tech. Worthy left the game with some sort of leg injury and right guard DJ Campbell was pulled as well. We’ll see what their status is but the game week will be unique for this final contest.

Texas plays Texas Tech in Austin on Friday night, the day after Thanksgiving, and lose a day of recuperation and preparation in advance of the contest. Theoretically this should benefit the Longhorns more than the Red Raiders, who have less depth and less to play for. The Raiders are 6-5 after edging out UCF earlier today 24-23, so they’ve already secured bowl eligibility. In Big 12 conference play they’re 5-3 and already out of the championship game hunt.

However, those two injuries combined with the absolute delight Texas Tech and most everyone else in this league takes from beating the Longhorns ensures Texas will get a game effort from their in-state opponent.

The stakes of the game for Texas are unclear in terms of the Big 12 Championship but clear for the postseason beyond conference play. The Longhorns are in the thick of the playoff hunt and could easily be positioned to finish in the top four if they win out. If they lose to Tech, they are a long shot for the playoffs given all the qualified applicants currently in the rankings.

However, a loss to Tech might not keep the Longhorns from their goal of winning the Big 12 Championship. Texas is in sole possession of 1st place in the standings with one week left and it’s hard to find a scenario where they aren’t in the top two even with a loss. The other relevant teams include:

Oklahoma, who has to play a TCU team fighting for bowl eligibility off a short week and likely without Dillon Gabriel, who left the game today with what might have been a concussion.Oklahoma State, who faces BYU at home.Kansas State, who plays Iowa State at home.

If one of the Oklahoma’s loses, or Kansas State wins, Texas will be positioned to get in regardless of the Tech outcome. One of the two Oklahoma schools finding a loss or K-State winning at home are all pretty likely. In my own opinion, Texas fans who care most about winning a Big 12 title and making the playoffs should root for a Conference Title match against Oklahoma State, a run-heavy team who will find the Longhorns a tough team to score against.

At any rate, today was a big win and a great day for the program. The Longhorns now have 10 regular season wins for the first time since 2009 and are having their best season in over a decade. Or as Whittington put it after the game…

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