Keys to the Game: Mississippi State vs. Auburn

When the Mississippi State Bulldogs travel to the Plains this weekend to face the Auburn Tigers, they’ll make the trip still in the hunt for bowl eligibility, a feat that not many thought would turn into reality.

At the moment, Mississippi State is a 6.5 point underdog as the road team, and don’t even bother looking at the over/under. What will it take for MSU to flip that narrative?

Offense

– #AlwaysRunNeverPass is back, and that means that Mississippi State has to control the line of scrimmage. Against a physical Auburn defensive line, that’s no short order. Auburn doesn’t jump off the page anywhere, but when you turn the film on, their defensive line puts in the work.

– I’ve given up on Mississippi State throwing the ball with Mike Wright at quarterback more than 15-20 times a game. Therefore, the times they do throw it have got to be productive. Last week’s lone score was a pass within the red zone, and I think that’s going to be a theme this week as well. When they throw the ball, it’s got to be with purpose and bad intentions.

– Mississippi State has to contain Eugene Asante. The 6-foot-2 222 lb. linebacker is all over the field and is eight in the SEC in tackles. The Tigers will use him in blitz packages, let him roam or spy him to try and limit Wright on the ground. There has to be a hat on #9 every play.

Defense

– I’m not going to act like the performance from this past weekend will be replicated, unless Auburn and Hugh Freeze are giving Dan Enos a free trial at play calling since he has time on his hands now. However, Mississippi State has to find their way into the backfield one way or another. The Bulldogs will be facing a two quarterback system this weekend, which means fresh legs under center more than not. It’ll be a challenge, but one that the Mississippi State defense will have to meet.

– Auburn wants to run the football, and that bodes well for MSU. They’re a much better run defense than they are through the air. However, weird things happen in Jordan-Hare stadium, and if Auburn Jesus, Hugh Freeze, John Cohen and company have a miracle up their sleeve, MSU will have to be sure it doesn’t come through the air and limit the big plays.

What we hope for

– The offense to explode for more than 30 points. If Mississippi State managed to best that 30 point mark, it would be for only the second time during SEC play, the other coming against South Carolina in another road game.

– Less penalties going forward has to be a focus for MSU. It almost killed a drive against Arkansas until Justin Robinson’s big catch, and if it weren’t for that catch, MSU would more than likely have let the Hogs take over from Mississippi State’s side of the field. If that happens again this weekend, I doubt the Tigers will have as tough a time capping off a drive than Arkansas.

Prediction

I picked the over last week, and there’s not a shot that I’m doing it again. I think Mississippi State pulls out the win, but just barely. MSU 13, Auburn 10 is my prediction this week.

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