Ohio State opponent scout: Penn State reporter Nate Bauer breaks down Nittany Lions
COLUMBUS — Penn State has been chasing Ohio State for a decade.
The No. 3 Buckeyes are squaring off against the No. 7 Nittany Lions on Saturday night, and it’s the latest chance — and potentially best chance — for Penn State to finally catch Ohio State.
Lettermen Row reached out to Blue White Illustrated beat writer Nate Bauer to learn more about this year’s Penn State squad that has dominated its way to a 6-0 start, a team that believes this is the year it can finally topple the Buckeyes.
Lettermen Row: What should we expect from Drew Allar in his first big-time, high-stakes road start?
BAUER: I think it’s the question of the game, in a lot of ways. So, how can I answer it? I’ll do it by talking out of both sides of my mouth. Which is to say, first I’ll look back at what he’s done to date in his career at Penn State. He’s been cool and calm and poised in the situations he has faced. That included filling in for Sean Clifford to open the season last year at a critical moment in the game. It has included some stale moments in the first half at Illinois. And it has included handling the business of West Virginia and Iowa at home this season.
But what it hasn’t included is anything remotely like Ohio State or Ohio Stadium. Guys who have looked the part, at Penn State and elsewhere, have gotten into big games against quality Buckeye teams and not continued that trajectory. All of which leads me to somewhere in the middle, with the caveat that he needs help. His “worst” performance this season was at Illinois, where the offensive line had trouble with Jer’Zhan Newton and his receivers let him down repeatedly.
Do I expect him to disintegrate from the pressure, and do it alone while every other piece of Penn State’s offense holds up its end of the bargain? No, I don’t. But, to think this will be a nerve-free performance from a true sophomore isn’t realistic, either.
Lettermen Row: Do you believe Penn State is more talented than Ohio State?
BAUER: Yowza! Comin’ in hot! More talented? No. As talented? Maybe. Different types of talent? Almost certainly.
I’ll put it this way: In terms of top-end talent, if Marvin Harrison Jr. is the projected No. 2 pick in the NFL Draft, and I’m not sure there is an argument to counter that, then Ohio State has that edge in terms of a gamebreaking guy that you can’t contain. Add a healthy Emeka Egbuka to that equation as a potential top 10 pick, and the sentiment is furthered. Throw J.T. Tuimoloau in the mix, and now this Buckeyes team is looking at three potential first round picks.
Penn State isn’t without a response, though. Since deciding to come back for this season, Olu Fashanu has continued to climb in mock drafts, potentially becoming a top 10 overall pick himself. And, unlike many of the Nittany Lions’ most recent teams with one and only one potential first round pick, he has company. Depending on the mock, Chop Robinson and Kalen King as first round guys, at similarly impactful positions.
If we’re calling that a draw, or something close to it, what makes this game interesting from a talent perspective is the breadth of talent that Penn State has shown this season. For as good as King has been, Johnny Dixon is going to get drafted opposite him, too. For as good as Robinson is, Adisa Isaac and Dani Dennis-Sutton have been excellent ends themselves. And for as good as Fashanu is, it’s Hunter Nourzad and improvement out of Caedan Wallace, Sal Wormley, and JB Nelson that have elevated the offensive line.
In a lot of ways, Ohio State has beaten Penn State in past seasons for both reasons. Elite talent showing out in critical moments, as well as the not-yet-superstars who’ve come up big. That the gap in those categories has been minimized is what makes this game a more even matchup than many of the past 10.
Lettermen Row: Where — if anywhere — is the Penn State defense vulnerable?
BAUER: I cannot stress enough how putrid the offenses have been that Penn State has faced thus far. Truly, we’re talking about some of the most abysmal outfits in college football. We all know about Iowa and that train wreck offensively, but Illinois, Northwestern, Delaware, and UMass aren’t far off. West Virginia at least had a compelling quarterback who could run and pass, and a running back that could keep them honest. None of that is meant to take away from Penn State’s performance so far — it has been dominant in nearly every respect — but it demands inclusion in the conversation when assessing the infallibility of this group.
A competent quarterback is a good place to start. Receivers and tight ends that can make plays on the ball are a good follow. Add a stable of running backs that can make you pay for missing your gap, and there are plenty of places that this group can be got. It’s just a question of whether or not there is a blueprint that can work against these guys for the duration of a game. To that end, I’m not sure I’m ready to say that Ohio State could successfully throw it all day on this Penn State secondary. Or that the Nittany Lions won’t have some success in the pass rush to counter whatever weaknesses might be exploited on the interior of the defensive line. But, for what it’s worth, this is a group that has gotten consistently stronger later in games, every game it has played. Early points for the Buckeyes would be a big boost.
Lettermen Row: Has Penn State been tested yet this year?
BAUER: In the sense that it has had to open the season against an unfamiliar opponent on national TV for the debut of a bunch of players, including Allar, sure. Penn State also had to overcome stubbed toes in the first half of games at Illinois and Northwestern, which can be tricky for anyone. And, as mentioned, Newton is really, really good and gave Penn State challenges. And West Virginia’s quarterback, Garrett Greene, made the Nittany Lions work for it.
But, beyond that, absolutely not.
It’s a conversation for another day about the growing chasm between Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State (even if not truly in the club of elites yet) and everyone else in the Big Ten. You can only play who you play in the order they’re assigned. And different opponents and venues have created opportunities for Penn State to learn how to win outside its comfort zone.
It’s just not the same, or anything close to it, as playing Ohio State at the Horseshoe.
Lettermen Row: What’s the blueprint for beating Penn State?
BAUER: Against this defense, score early and hit a couple of home runs. Avoid third-and-long because they feast on it. And, in that same vein, stick with the running game. Even if it doesn’t immediately yield results, there are dividends to be had.
Defensively, just given how the season has gone, this first response might sound a little counterintuitive. But, I think it’s true. Fixate on keeping Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen in check by swarming them, even if it means creating chunk play vulnerabilities. Defenses have done a nice job keeping them from breaking off chunk plays this year after they spent much of the 2022 season breaking backs. That formula hasn’t been working for any teams this season though as the pair just settles in, takes what it gets, and plods up the field with Allar. Same deal in the passing game. Allar is likely going to throw for good percentages, but just about everything has come from modest gains. They’ve just collectively shown an uncanny ability offensively to be patient and mature as an offense.
What they haven’t done, though, is turn short plays in the passing game into long plays. And, the running game might have done it all year last season, but it hasn’t been able to do the same this year – thanks in large part to opponents being hellbent on preventing that from happening. Make Penn State be explosive offensively and live with it if they are.
Lettermen Row: Will the Penn State offense finally try creating explosive plays against Ohio State?
BAUER: Let’s not get into the mindset that Penn State hasn’t been trying. The misconception is that explosives are only created by taking shots down the field in the passing game. Singleton created explosives by bursting through tiny windows, making a defender miss, and going the distance. Parker Washington turned a 6-yard catch into a touchdown against Ohio State last season by bouncing off a tackle, making a move, and going the distance. Penn State just hasn’t been able to manufacture those types of plays this season. And, while it hasn’t had to up to this point, time’s up. They’re going to need to be able to create some of them against Ohio State and Michigan if they hope to win.
Lettermen Row: What’s your pick?
BAUER: Whoever is looking at this game, making a pick, and feeling strongly in either direction, I have one thing to say:
I don’t believe you.
Understanding that the Buckeyes are very much still a mountain within the conference and the national college football landscape, the question is whether or not Penn State is ready to get over it.
I think this team is capable of doing that. In a game that I’m convinced could go either way, but is highly unlikely to be uncompetitive for either side, I’m still on the fence.
The Buckeyes are still the Buckeyes, and they’ll be a tough out. But there is an opportunity counter to previous seasons that I think tilts this one slightly toward a more even matchup. Instead of necessarily needing a season-best performance paired with an off-day for Ohio State, Penn State matching or barely exceeding the Buckeyes’ showing on both sides of the ball is possibly enough to come out with a razor-thin win.
Given the obsession Penn State specifically has with catching up to Ohio State, which remains the model the program has aspired to match, this could be the year for it.
Penn State 26
Ohio State 23
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