Spencer’s Sheet: Best bets, prop picks for Ohio State at Rutgers

This college football season marks the first of its kind: a year when Ohio residents can wager on Ohio State football. Lettermen Row’s Spencer Holbrook isn’t betting on Buckeyes games because he covers the team, but he’s here to give his picks as if he was to help fans who might want some action on Ohio State games.

COLUMBUS — We’re not looking for 1-1 weeks, but it’s certainly better than a losing week.

Last week, the Sheet took the first-half under. It cashed. But we also had Braelon Allen’s rushing total over 72.5. He had 50 yards in the first half before going down with an injury. That’s tough luck.

Still, we’re 4-1 in the last two weekends of Ohio State plays. And we think we have a good card on deck for Ohio State vs. Rutgers.

Let’s get into the picks. We have one total pick and two prop bets we have zeroed in on as our official plays for the trip to Piscataway.

All odds via Fanduel Sportsbook

The basics

Time: 12 p.m. ESTTV Channel: CBSDate: Saturday, Nov. 4Location: SHI Stadium, Piscataway, New JerseyWeather: High of 59º RealFeel of 61º, 4% chance of rain, winds 6-8 mphThe line: Ohio State is a 18.5-point favorite, per FanDuel.Over/under: 42.5 points

The trends

Ohio State is 4-3-1 against the spread this season. The Buckeyes had covered the spread in every game since it started 0-2 against the number, with the exception of the push at Notre Dame. But they failed to cover by a half-point against Wisconsin.Ohio State is 9-0 all-time against Rutgers.The closest margin of victory in matchups between Ohio State and Rutgers is 22 pointsThe Buckeyes have went over the total just once in their eight games this seasonRutgers is 6-1-1 against the spread this seasonRutgers is 4-1 against the spread at home this seasonThe over is 4-4 in Rutgers games this seasonOhio State was a 41.5-point favorite over Rutgers last seasonThe Buckeyes are 6-3 against the spread in games against the Scarlet Knights

The spread

Ohio State -14.5 (-105)

Rutgers +18.5 (-115)

Why Ohio State will cover: Ohio State is beginning to find its stride on offense, even if that hasn’t showed up on the scoreboard — yet. With the return of Emeka Egbuka seeming more likely than not this week, the offense will finally be back at full strength. And with a defense that just keeps getting better, Rutgers will have a tough time keeping up.

Why the Buckeyes won’t cover: The assumed absence of Lathan Ransom plays a big part in the defense, which gives up a couple of plays, and Rutgers cooks up some special teams antics as well. Ohio State struggles against a good defense and Rutgers keeps it within two scores for the afternoon. It’s a formula that could happen for the first time in 10 tries.

The pick

Ohio State -18.5 (-115): I don’t trust Ohio State’s offense to score a ton of points, right now, but the Buckeyes did figure some things out last week at Wisconsin. What I trust even less, though, is the Rutgers offense against the Ohio State defense. Rutgers is going to have troubles moving the ball against this Buckeyes defense, and the Buckeyes may only need 21 or more points to cover this spread. Give me the Buckeyes and lay the points. It’s just too hard to see Rutgers scoring very many points, and the Ohio State talent on offense should be able to find a few scores.

The prop picks

Rutgers team total under 10.5 (-113): Ohio State allows just 10 points per game. Rutgers scored seven points against Michigan and 13 against Wisconsin, the two best defenses the Scarlet Knights have played this season. Yes, this Rutgers team is certainly improved, especially on the defensive side of the ball. But this offense struggles against good defenses. Ohio State qualifies as one of the best defensive units in the country. It’s hard to see Rutgers scoring more than a couple of times against the Buckeyes on Saturday. Take the Rutgers team total under 10.5.

Kyle McCord over 2.5 passing touchdowns (+162): This is a risky play, but it’s one I am willing to pass along. Rutgers is second nationally in passing yards allowed, ahead of Ohio State and behind only Michigan. The Scarlet Knights are so much better against the pass than they have been in any recent year. But this is a Homecoming game for McCord, whose dad played at Rutgers. He’s coming off his worst performance of the year (two interceptions and a fumble) and has plenty of doubters to silence. He has been good in pressure-packed situations all year, and this will be no different. With Emeka Egbuka expected back and Marvin Harrison Jr. still doing Marvin Harrison Jr. things, McCord can have one of his best days. And the value here is too good to pass up.

Season total: 10-9

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