The CaneSport On3: “Hit or Miss” series analysis of Miami Hurricanes 2022 class
Miami fans can be forgiven for wondering what has gone wrong over the last two years. Because there has been a lot, with the team finishing 5-7 and 7-6. So is it a case of roster deficiencies left over by Manny Diaz? Injuries, or turnover-prone QB Tyler Van Dyke? Was the coaching an issue, including the offensive play-calling?
While the most obvious answer is probably a combination of all the above, there is some statistical relevance you can glean as we have laid out our Hit Or Miss series.
The crux of it is this: Last year On3 ran a story in which it determined that a 60% hit rate for a recruiting class would be considered a major success for any program. And for some programs that much talent could change the trajectory of a program. A “hit” was denoted as a player that started games in multiple seasons.
Introducing “Hit or Miss” series … 2019 Class Analysis … 2020 Class Analysis … 2021 Class Analysis
So we are now applying that to the Miami recruiting classes spanning 2019-2022 to determine the “hit” rate. Is it anything close to approaching 60%? If it is, then that would probably denote that the team wasn’t developing players well enough under the coaching staffs, right? If not, it’s a sign that the recruiting wasn’t good enough leading up to the Mario Cristobal era.
We look at each of those four classes and their “hit” rate as determined – as stated above – by any player that starts a game for the team in more than one season. And with one-year transfers a hit is a productive player with a miss a guy that was simply a depth filler.
Today’s focus: The 2022 recruiting class.
Keep in mind that the real purpose behind the multi-year starts “hit” rate is essentially saying that a program developed a player who contributed in multiple seasons, which not only helps the team but allows depth to be built up as needed behind him. Big picture we would encourage you to look at the bigger picture message, which is how the program’s overall hit rate compares to that championship level 60 percent as found by On3.
MIAMI CLASS OF 2022 HIT OR MISS
HIT DE Mitchell Agude transferred from UCLA and in his one year at Miami had 39 tackles, seven for losses with four sacks. He was a part-time starter (six games). Is that a “hit?” We will give him the benefit of the doubt, even though it’s borderline.
HIT LB Wesley Bissainthe has started games in each of his first two years (three starts in 2022, nine this past season). Has he really lived up to his potential to this point? Not so much. He ended 2022 with 30 tackles (none for losses), then this season split starts with KJ Cloyd and had 44 tackles, 6.5 for losses with two sacks. He is expected to be the full-time starter at OLB in 2024, and in Year 3 he should really be ready to break out.
HIT QB Jacurri Brown is already considered a “hit” simply because he started two games as a true freshman in 2022 when Tyler Van Dyke was injured and with Jake Garcia struggling, then started the bowl game this past season. Accuracy has been an issue for Brown, who can also make big plays with his legs. In 2022 he ended completing 27 of 45 passes for 230 yards with three TDs (adding 223 rush yards), and in the bowl game this year he completed 20 of 31 passes for 181 yards with a TD and interception, adding 57 rush yards and two more scores on the ground. He has a lot of future potential, but has to clean up some of his accuracy inconsistencies.
MISS RB TreVonte’ Citizen suffered a major knee injury before his freshman season and hasn’t returned to full strength since. The hope is he can be back and make a difference in 2024, as when healthy he possesses a great combination of size and explosiveness.
HIT OG Anez Cooper started four of the final five games in 2022 as a true freshman, and then was an every game starter this past season. He is a physical presence at guard and did a really nice job, and he will again be a force for Miami in 2024.
MISS OL Jon Denis transferred in from Oregon but has been mired down the depth chart and has dealt with injury.
MISS CB Chris Graves redshirted in 2022 and then transferred to Ole Miss, where he had 13 tackles off the bench this past season.
MISS S Jaden Harris redshirted in 2022, then started against Bethune-Cookman and Temple this year when Kam Kinchens was out injured. He faired okay but has a lot of work to do if he wants to be a starter moving forward.
MISS WR Isaiah Horton redshirted in 2022, catching one pass, then started the final two games this year and ended with 13 catches for 168 yards and a TD (52 yards against Texas A&M). He has a big frame and plus speed and could wind up a full-time starter with Colbie Young gone to Georgia.
HIT DT Darrell Jackson arrived as a Maryland transfer in 2022, started and was productive – he had 27 tackles, 4.5 TFL and three sacks. Per our transfer rule we are considering him a “hit” because of his successful one season at Miami. But he then transferred to FSU, redshirted this year, and is expected to start there in 2024.
MISS LB Caleb Johnson was a one-year transfer from UCLA, and in 2022 he 48 tackles, four TFL and 1.5 sacks. It was expected he would be the starter when Miami added him from the portal, but Corey Flagg wound up beating him out.
MISS DE Nyjalik Kelly redshirted in 2022, then began this past season as a starter but didn’t get off to a strong start and then suffered a season-ending injury in Game 4. He finished with eight tackles, one for a loss. He will be in the mix to start in 2024, but with Akheem Mesidor and Rueben Bain returning it will be interesting to see the rotation (both Mesidor and Bain can also work inside at tackle).
MISS WR Frank Ladson did start nine games in 2022, but he wasn’t a factor (27 catches, 298 yards, 1 TD) and was mired down the depth chart in 2023. He entered the transfer portal again after the season, with one year of eligibility remaining.
MISS DT Jacob Lichtenstein arrived from USC in the Class of 2022 but was a depth chart guy the last two years. In 2022 he had four tackles with a sack, and this past season he totaled five tackles with 3.5 TFL and a sack.
MISS OL Matthew McCoy actually started a game as a freshman, against Georgia Tech with injuries affecting the line (he played in one other game off the bench). Then this past season he played in eight games off the bench and was behind Luis Cristobal, Jr. as a backup in the bowl game. But we can see McCoy pushing to start in 2024, and he has a lot of potential.
HIT DL Akheem Mesidor played in 11 games in 2022 after arriving from West Virginia and was a major standout with 38 tackles, 10.5 TFL and a team-high seven sacks. But this year he suffered a season-ending injury and only played in three games (5 tackles, 1 sack). He is highly talented and should make a big impact in 2024. He can play end or tackle.
MISS DE Cyrus Moss came into Miami needing to pack on weight and strength but struggled to do so and was mired down the depth chart. He entered the transfer portal after this season.
MISS DT Ahmad Moten redshirted in 2022 and was down the depth chart this past season – in nine games he had two tackles.
MISS DT Antonio Moultrie never was able to really make a difference and was a backup in his lone season at Miami after arriving from UAB. He had 14 tackles, two TFL and shared a sack.
HIT RB Henry Parrish started five games after arriving as a Mississippi transfer in 2022, then started five more this past season (he missed two games due to injury). Fletcher led the team with 616 rush yards and four TDs in 2022, and lead Miami again this year with 625 rush yards and six TDs. Parrish lost the starting job to Mark Fletcher starting with the NC State game this year, and Fletcher is likely to work ahead of Parrish again in 2024.
HIT CB Daryl Porter, Jr. arrived from West Virginia in 2022 and was a backup, then emerged starting all nine games in which he was available health-wise this past season (ended with 23 tackles and four pass breakups). He’s the only full-time returning starter in the secondary heading to 2024, and since he already had one solid season as a transfer at Miami we are already counting him as a “hit”.
MISS CB Khamauri Rogers was a four-star signee who arrived off a knee injury suffered in high school and was mired down the depth chart as a freshman. He transferred to Mississippi State for this past season and didn’t get any action.
MISS OL Logan Sagapolu has been mired down the depth chart since arriving from Oregon in 2022, only getting reps due to injuries last year when he played in five games and started one.
MISS TE Jaleel Skinner struggled with blocking and holding onto passes, a bad combination. The former highly touted recruit did play in nine games and started two in 2022, with nine catches for 129 yards and a TD, but he was mired down the depth chart this year and entered the transfer portal.
MISS S Markeith Williams redshirted in 2022, then played in nine games off the bench this past season and had 15 tackles, one for a loss. Williams could emerge as a starting safety in 2024 with James Williams and Kam Kinchens gone, especially given how he flashed in the bowl game with eight tackles, a PBU and shared sack.
HIT WR Colbie Young arrived as a Lackawanna College transfer and in Year 1 (2023) he started six of the final seven games and ended with 367 yards (second on the team to Will Mallory) on 32 catches with five TDs. This past season as a full-time starter he was third on the team with 47 receptions for 563 yards and five TDs. Now he’s transferred to Georgia. So while he’s considered a “hit” it really wasn’t a breakout couple of years at Miami overall. He had a much higher potential ceiling for his production.
FINAL RESULTS
9 HITS
17 MISSES
Hit rate: 34.6 percent
FINAL THOUGHTS
This was not Mario Cristobal’s first “true” class, but it was his first class after he was hired in December and quickly had to make sure to keep together what Manny Diaz and his staff had gotten commitment-wise while adding a few pieces of his own. The end result? Well, first consider that the “miss” rate is going to be higher here simply because there are more seasons in which these players can still earn starts moving forward compared to the prior classes. So far it’s 34.6 percent, which already is higher than the 2021 33.3 percent rate. And if we are projecting out to 2024 perhaps we can change the “miss” to “hit” for guys like Isaiah Horton, Nyjalik Kelly and maybe even Matthew McCoy, who all could wind up starting games. So if you add those three that would change the hit rate to 46.2 percent, which would best the rates from 2019, 2020 and 2021 (2019 at a 43.5 percent hit rate, 2020 at a 37.5 percent hit rate, 2021 also at a 37.5 percent hit rate).
Of all the above in this class, you can already definitively label 10 misses (transfers out are Chris Graves, Frank Ladson, Cyrus Moss, Khamauri Rogers and Jaleel Skinner; transfers in that didn’t make an impact and are gone are Caleb Johnson, Jacob Lichtenstein and Antonio Moultrie, and it’s not expected there will be big roles ahead for Jon Denis or Logan Sagapolu).
In a best-case scenario for the rest of this class where all the remaining guys start for multiple years?
Well, then you’re at a 61.5 percent hit rate.
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