The CaneSport On3: Why 2024 may be the last influx of Miami Hurricanes transfers that approaches double-digits

The Miami Hurricanes relied heavily on the transfer portal to supplement the roster after Mario Cristobal took over the program, adding 11 transfers in 2022, 15 more last year and nine so far through this year’s first portal window.

Certainly there can be a debate on if all the transfers were worth it the first two years considering the Canes’ underwhelming combined 12-13 record in Cristobal’s first two seasons. On its face, though, what adding all these transfers tells you is the roster simply wasn’t good enough.

Adding transfers doesn’t happen in a vacuum. There are 85 scholarship players per year, and every transfer you add means one less recruit you can take or one returning player you jettison. That’s the math Cristobal did, and his equation ended with needing transfers.

The idea ultimately is to get the roster to a championship level, with transfers helping bridge the gap until the younger players are ready to emerge.

Picture a bear in hibernation. Miami’s sort of been in a cave so far, right? So the question now is when the program will emerge from the darkness and into the light.

The first indications you get from the cave is a deep growl, and when those transfer portal numbers start to dip you can go ahead and be quiet and listen for that. Because what that will mean is there are good enough players on the roster that there aren’t starters/depth pieces that have to be found elsewhere. It should get to the point where some other top programs are, with solid rosters and only needing to nitpick a few areas in the portal.

For instance, Michigan took four transfers in 2021 and three in 2022, putting together the building blocks of its national title run in 2023.

Alabama took four in 2021, five in 2022 and five last year.

Clemson has taken two TOTAL transfers the last four years.

Texas took six, seven and five transfers the last three years.

The outliers, of course, are also there. Florida State, for instance, built its program in the portal with 11 additions in 2021, 14 in 2022, 12 more last year and a staggering 15 already in 2024. The problem FSU has is now sort of a vicious cycle – you have a roster full of older transfers every year who are around a year or two and then you have to take more transfers to fill those spots because you haven’t brought in a load of young guys to develop. With the 85 limit you can’t add a ton of transfers AND a ton of top recruits. It’s simple math. So a transfer-heavy roster can be difficult to sustain year to year. Just ask Michigan State (13 transfers in 2021, helped team to an 11-2 record, then the team added 24 more transfers the following two years and went a combined 9-15).

So where does that leave things as it pertains to Miami? Well, Mario Cristobal has made his name as a recruiter, not a portal king. He wants to land top recruits, develop them and have them leave as NFL first-rounders. All indications are he does not want to have to take double-digit transfers each season like an FSU or Michigan State.

And all signs are pointing to the Miami portal number dropping off a cliff starting with the 2025 season.

By then Cristobal will have stacked four recruiting classes on top of each other. As you look at our eligibility tracker now, it is eight over the limit when the rest of the freshmen report in the summer. Based on the current roster it’s not hard to find a handful of junior/seniors that could be asked to find a new home in the next portal window.

Regardless, if you add up the freshmen and sophomores you will find 62 players. Those are guys that are being groomed to compete at the highest level and play a big role in 2025. You aren’t going to see many of them jettisoned until they are clearly filled out/coached to whatever they can achieve. There also are currently 17 seniors and perhaps a couple of juniors that will go pro early. So it’s easy to see a class of 20 or more recruits in the next cycle. And if you add those 20 anticipated new arrivals to the current 62 freshmen and sophomores you’re at 82, three under the limit. That would not include rising seniors. So, again, you are really starting to see a younger, more talented roster full of Cristobal’s hand-picked guys.

The bottom line? Unless Cristobal’s made a lot of recruiting mistakes, which we don’t envision based on his history, the days of approaching 10 or more transfer is likely in the past.

And that’s probably a good thing.

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