Tip Time Preview: Purdue at Iowa
PURDUE (16-2, 5-2) at IOWA (11-6, 3-3)
TIME: 1:00 p.m.
TV: FS1 – Brandon Gaudin and Robbie Hummel on the call.
SERIES: Purdue leads the all-time series 96-78 and the Boilers have won 9 of the last 12 games. Purdue won the first meeting this season back in December in West Lafayette, 87-68.
THE LINE: Purdue is a 7 point favorite.
THE NUMBERS
OFFENSE: PURDUE – 85.1 PPG, 49.3% FG, 39.6% 3 PT FG. IOWA – 87.1 PPG, 48.1% FG, 34.9% 3 PT FG.
DEFENSE: PURDUE – 69.3 PPG, 40.6% FG, 30.9% 3 PT FG. IOWA – 77.5 PPG, 44.6% FG, 32.4% 3 PT FG.
PURDUE
7-4 center Zach Edey – 22.9 points and 11.1 rebounds per game.
6-4 guard Fletcher Loyer – 11.4 points and 2.3 assists per game.
6-1 guard Lance Jones – 11.6 points and 2.4 rebounds per game.
6-0 guard Braden Smith – 12.0 points and 7.1 assists per game.
6-9 forward Trey Kaufman-Renn – 7.1 points and 4.3 rebounds per game.
IOWA
6-10 forward Owen Freeman – 11.1 points and 6.1 rebounds per game.
6-4 guard Tony Perkins – 13.9 points and 4.2 assists rebounds per game.
6-7 forward Payton Sandfort – 14.2 points and 6.9 rebounds per game.
6-9 forward Patrick McCaffery – 9.9 points and 3.5 rebounds per game.
6-9 forward Ben Krikke – 16.9 points and 5.4 rebounds per game.
PLAYER TO WATCH – Tony Perkins – It’s also a little bit extra special for Perkins when he faces one of his home state schools. He’d like nothing better than to give them a loss on Saturday. Perkins is going to have to keep Braden Smith in check and also be a significant scoring threat in this game.
KEY MATCH-UP – Owen Freeman vs. Zach Edey – Nothing like a true freshman who is making his mark getting a shot at the national player of the year in college hoops and giving up five inches and a good amount of weight. Freeman is going to have to avoid picking up quick fouls and also make the All American work on the defensive end of the floor.
STATS AND NOTES
Patrick McCaffery is questionable due to an ankle injury. If he does not start, Josh Dix would be his likely replacement. Dix is averaging 6.6 points per game and shooting 46.9% from three point range. He is coming off a career high 21 points against Minnesota on Monday.
Fran McCaffery became the all-time leader in wins as an Iowa coach on Monday following the victory over Minnesota. McCaffery passed Tom Davis for the top spot on the all-time win list.
Iowa is adding eight newcomers to their roster, including six new scholarship players. The transfers are Ben Krikke and Even Brauns. The freshmen are Brock Harding, Pryce Sandfort, Owen Freeman, and Ladji Dembele. Harding and Sandfort were Mr. Basketball in their home states of Illinois and Iowa.
Freshman big man Owen Freeman was named Freshman of the Week by the Big Ten five times in the early portion of the college basketball season. He is averaging 11.1 points and 6.1rebounds per game. Fellow freshman Brock Harding recently posted his first career double-double with 10 points and 12 assists.
The Hawkeyes are one of ten teams in the country to make the last four NCAA Tournaments. Iowa has placed fifth or better in the Big Ten in five straight years.
Iowa went 3-0 on a foreign tour of France and Spain. They had victories over the Paris All Stars, Valencia All Stars, and Barcelona All Stars. Iowa averaged 127 points per game in the three victories.
Iowa is 3-0 this season in games played on a Saturday. The Hawkeyes are 54-28 in games on Saturday in the McCaffery era. Iowa is 1-2 this year on FS1. In the McCaffery era, Iowa is 23-16 in games played on FS1.
KenPom.com has Iowa ranked 42nd in his rankings. Purdue is ranked 2nd. Purdue 2nd in the NET rankings and Iowa is 48th. KenPom.com has Iowa winning this game 88-81.
THE PICK
The last time the Hawkeyes and the Boilermakers met on the basketball court it wasn’t really even a contest. Purdue raced out to a 21 point lead at the break and coasted to an easy win. Iowa only had two players reach double figures and that was Ben Krikke with 18 points and Tony Perkins chipping in with 12.
In that first meeting, Iowa was just 6-18 from three, including only 1-8 in the first half. If the Hawkeyes are going to pull the upset and knock off the #2 ranked Boilermakers, they are going to have to shoot better from deep.
Purdue has lost two games this year. The first one was to Northwestern, who made 10 three’s in that win in Evanston. Then Nebraska knocked down 14 three’s in their upset victory in Lincoln. So there is recipe for the upset and it starts there. The problem is, Iowa has only reached double figures from three just three times and only one of those was in Big Ten play. That game was Nebraska, when Iowa made 15 three point field goals.
That’s the first key. The second is in the Iowa needs to cause some turnovers. The Hawkeyes forced eight the first time around. In the two Purdue losses, they had 14 and 17 turnovers. That resulted in 20 and 18 points off those turnovers. So, if there is a path it’s going to include the Boilermakers being sloppy with the basketball.
Also, Purdue shoots nearly 50% from the floor on the season, but in the two losses, they shot just 43.3% and 42.1%. So Iowa needs to keep the Boilers in the low 40’s to win this game.
Iowa got off to a rough start in the last game at Minnesota, but the past two home games, the Hawkeyes jumped Rutgers and Nebraska. Iowa needs a fast start in this one. Falling behind by double figures early on is a way to take the crowd out of the game and Purdue doesn’t let you back into games.
It’s really quite remarkable that Iowa hasn’t played a close game in conference play. No game has been closer than nine points. I suspect that this one is going to be a tight game. Iowa’s playing better and they will give Purdue all they can handle. But, in the end, the Hawkeyes can’t handle Edey. PURDUE 84 IOWA 80
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