Updating Tennessee’s ranking in ESPN’s Football Power Index, what’s left for the Vols
Tennessee enters Week 8 of the college football season ranked No. 16 overall in ESPN’s Football Power Index. The FPI has the Vols fifth among SEC teams and projected to go 9-3 after winning five of the first six games this season.
Tennessee (5-1, 2-1 SEC), ranked No. 17 in this week’s Associated Press Top 25, goes to No. 11 Alabama (6-1, 4-0) on Saturday (3:30 p.m. Eastern Time, CBS) as the two teams renew their Third Saturday in October rivalry at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa.
The FPI gives Tennessee a 100% chance to win six games and become bowl eligible. The Vols still have a 10.8% chance to win the SEC East and a 3.8% chance to win the SEC championship.
In terms of the playoff picture Tennessee has an 1.4% chance to make the four-team College Football Playoff, an 0.6% chance to advance to the national championship game and an 0.2% chance to win the national title.
Here’s a look at where Tennessee’s remaining opponents, as well as past opponents, rank in ESPN’s current FPI numbers:
What’s Left on Tennessee’s Schedule
At No. 7 Alabama: Since the 34-24 to Texas on September 9 in Tuscaloosa, the Tide have won five straight, beating South Florida (17-3), Ole Miss (24-10), Mississippi State (40-17), Texas A&M (26-20) and Arkansas (24-21). The FPI gives Tennessee a 23.6% chance to win on Saturday.
At No. 43 Kentucky: The Wildcats have dropped back-to-back games, losing 51-13 at No. 1 Georgia two weeks ago and 38-21 at home against Missouri last week, after UK built a 14-0 lead in the first quarter. Kentucky is off this week before Tennessee comes to town next week for the 7 p.m. Eastern Time kick on ESPN. The FPI gives the Vols a 70.2% chance to win in Lexington.
118 UConn: The Huskies picked up their first win of the season two weeks ago, beating Rice on the road 38-31. The season started with losses to North Carolina State (24-14), Georgia State (35-14), Florida International (24-17), Duke (41-7) and Utah State (34-33). UConn hosts South Florida Saturday and goes to Boston College before the trip to Knoxville on November 4. The FPI gives Tennessee a 97.8% chance to win.
At No. 27 Missouri: Mizzou lost 49-39 at home against LSU two weeks ago but bounced back with the 38-21 win at Kentucky on Saturday. The Tigers host South Carolina Saturday, have an off week then go to No. 1 Georgia on November 4 before the home date against Tennessee on November 11. The FPI gives the Vols a 61.4% chance to win at Mizzou.
No. 8 Georgia: After drilling Kentucky 51-13, Georgia won 37-20 at Vanderbilt on Saturday. The Dawgs are off this week before facing Florida in Jacksonville next week. They host Missouri and Ole Miss in back-to-back home games before the trip to Tennessee on November 18. Tennessee has a 34.6% chance to beat Georgia at home, per the FPI.
No. 101 Vanderbilt: After beating Hawaii (35-28) and Alabama A&M (47-13) to start the season, Vandy has lost six straight: at Wake Forest (36-20), at UNLV (40-37), Kentucky (45-28), Missouri (38-21), at Florida (38-14) and Georgia (37-20). The FPI gives Tennessee a 94.2% chance to beat Vandy in the regular-season finale on November 25.
The Wins So Far
No. 94 Virginia: The Cavaliers started the Eason with five straight losses before winning 27-13 at home against William & Mary two weeks ago. Joe Milton threw for 201 yards and two touchdowns in the 49-13 win over UVA while the Vols ran 52 times as a team for 287 yards and scored five times on the ground.
No. 76 UTSA: The Roadrunners are 3-3 on the season after back-to-back wins at Temple and at home against UAB, after losing 45-21 at Tennessee on September 23. Milton ran for an 81-yard touchdown on Tennessee’s first offensive snap and ended the game with 298 total yards and four total touchdowns.
No. 38 South Carolina: The Gamecocks are 2-4 through six games and have lost three of four after a 41-39 loss at home against Florida last week. In the 41-20 loss at Tennessee on September 30, the Vols ran 40 times for 238 yards and three touchdowns and Milton completed 21 of 32 passes for 239 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. Kamal Hadden returned an interception for a touchdown in the final minute of the first half to put the Vols up 24-10.
No. 17 Texas A&M: In the 20-13 win over the Aggies last week, Tennessee ran for 232 yards against an A&M defense that entered the game ranked No. 1 in the SEC in run defense, giving up just 84 yards per game. Milton completed 11 of 22 passes for 100 yards with a touchdown and an end-zone interception. A&M is off this weeks before hosting South Carolina next week.
The Loss
At No. 35 Florida: Since beating Tennessee 29-16 in Gainesville on September 16, the Gators have wins over Charlotte (22-7), Vanderbilt (38-14) and at South Carolina (41-39). Florida lost at Kentucky (33-14) two weeks after the win over the Vols.
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