Washington Huskies Playoff Preview Series: Part III, Purple Nuggets

A few things to tie up for this outstanding playoff semifinal matchup.

Remember The Alamo

I’ve cautioned Texas fans about putting too much stock in the Alamo Bowl last December or resorting to “We’re better now, they’re the same” logic – but there are useful narrow takeaways.

Texas gave up two sacks in San Antonio. Both to 6-4, 275 edge Bralen Trice, Washington’s best defender. Both were on play action using either pulling linemen or non-pass blockers on a power-based future NFL edge. The first sack had TEs Helm and Sanders tasked with double teaming him. The second was on a pull from guard Cole Hutson that put Cole at a bad angle in space against a superior athlete.

Straight up, Washington’s defensive line got little pressure.

The takeaway? Don’t actively scheme bad situations for blockers against their best pass rusher.

Short Yardage Deception

Washington likely can’t power Texas in goal to go situations or short yardage and, like Sark, DeBoer is a fearless playcaller. Four different Washington receivers have scored rushing touchdowns from the red zone. Texas has shown a penchant for blowing coverages in goal to go against throw games (see Oklahoma State). Penix is moderately mobile, though they absolutely avoid running him except when they Gotta Have It.

What does this all mean? I’d be surprised to see much conventional from Washington in the red zone or on short yardage. They’ll also go for it on 4th down and short in their territory. They did it twice in the Alamo Bowl, in fact. With a lead.

Texas has to be mentally prepared for that.

Remember The Alamo Part Deux

Execution-based Big 12 passing games are not uncommon. Presnap reads, throwing to spots, coordination, timing. Washington can play like that. We also have some, though more limited experience, with freak athlete improv passing games where QBs put up tough throws and receivers make plays through a double team. Washington can also play like that.

That’s a rare combo.

We also have limited experience with high level play action teams – except when we go 1s on 1s. Washington plays like that.

Michael Penix has thrown nine interceptions this year. All of them came on straight dropbacks. He has yet to throw a play action interception and all of his passing metrics are higher from play action: yards per attempt, depth of target, TD:INT ratio. Washington wants to play action. Along with pace, this is one of the most common misunderstandings of the Huskies.

Interestingly, NFL analytics have studied play action and determined that’s its efficacy is not correlated to running game success. The act itself seems to trigger the appropriate linebacker or safety response, even if your run game is failing. Heck, it may be why the run game is failing. If Texas can stuff the Husky run game, it’s important to keep in mind that Washington will continue to play action on normal downs to throw and create hesitation in drops or DL gap integrity.

Putting them in straight drop back situations or being able to ignore their play fakes via domination at the point of attack is the best hope for turning over Penix and forcing havoc.

Remember the Alamo Part Three

Last year, Texas held down Washington passing game explosives (they had a 35 yard completion on a flea flicker, no other pass went for more than 18 yards), but the execution aspect of the Husky passing game kicked in and they converted 13 of 23 money downs and controlled time of possession 2:1.

The Longhorn defensive game plan accidentally protected their vulnerable defense by going overboard on a style of play that was good in principle.

“Don’t give up big plays” – while immensely important – as the only requirement for stopping Washington is overly simplistic. In fact, extreme risk intolerance protects their defense while their patient offense plugs away with your offense sitting helplessly on the bench.

The biggest mismatch on the field is the Texas offense vs. the Washington defense. We want that to happen more, not less.

And which defense has more depth? Right.

Yes, we want to prevent big plays. On key downs, we must risk allowing them to get the ball back to create our own.

Passing Game Talent Differential

The #1 passing offense in college football gets all of the attention. I get it. The quality of Washington’s three wide receivers – Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan and Ja’Lynn Polk – is real. QB Michael Penix Jr was the runner up for the Heisman Trophy.

To listen to some in the national media, Washington’s throw game is absolutely elite and the Texas passing offense is a mediocrity.

Interesting thought exercise: when all four of their star skill players eventually come out in the NFL Draft, how much higher or lower will their aggregate average draft position be than Texas QB Quinn Ewers and his top three targets: Adonai Mitchell, Xavier Worthy, Ja’Tavion Sanders?

I don’t know. I can guess.

The NFL draft is not a measure of actual passing game efficacy – play on the field is the proof of that – and we know there are other inputs (coaching, OL, RBs, scheme, opponents), but it is interesting to consider that the core of the Longhorn throw game may not be far off from the much more feted Huskies on a NFL scouting board.

What’s the real difference? Experience. This game will be Michael Penix’s 48th start. This will be Quinn’s 22nd.

How to address that experiential deficit? The offensive game plan and the quality of the defense that each opposes.

About that defense…

Washington’s Defense

They miss 11 tackles a game.They have average quickness and speed. They are extremely veteran. They don’t panic. They put a lot on their safeties – Asa Turner and Dominique Hampton – in the run game. They also put a lot on Turner in keeping the top on the defense. Their linebackers are sketchy in run fits. The front – now healthy – is physical heads up, but they don’t move very well. We want them on the move. Please ignore the “We must simply line up and hammer them inside with the run game and control the clock and bully them” perspective. That person hasn’t watched Washington or Texas. We can run on them, but we will do it best with movement, creating cut back lanes and conflict. Not push. At least not at first. When Washington gives up a run on a missed tackle and a poor fit and it only goes for 5-10 yards, that’s a win for them. Texas must punish run defense errors with explosives. They hold up well in the red zone.They are not soft. Soft implies timid, physically weak or contact shy. They are not that. They are athletically limited. USC is soft.They have never faced a pass blocking offensive line and skill group like Texas. There will be massive opportunities in the passing game if Texas simply executes.

Finally, Washington isn’t 24-2 under DeBoer and on a 20 game winning streak because they panic, are scared of more athletic teams, or fear traditional powers. They have a formula for winning and they’ve won so many close games, they consider it normal.

Texas will have to take this game. It won’t be offered up on a platter.

Go and take it.

The post Washington Huskies Playoff Preview Series: Part III, Purple Nuggets appeared first on On3.